Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 21:15:34 GMT
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Viewed:
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405 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Bruce Schlickbernd writes:
> >
> > > I tried the simulator: it supported my conclusions. Really!
> >
> > Which simulator? Which conclusion?
>
> 50/50. First one I found on the site Larry noted. If there are mutiple
> ones, I didn't notice.
This one here?
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/monty3/index.html
How many trials? It is a *probability* after all, no guarantees about a
short run of trials. I ran 30 "stay" and 30 "switch" and got roughly 40 and
60 as the two percentage results.
Moving to the serious number cruncher, which does as many repeats as you
specify (up to 100,000):
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/monty/index.html
...I ran 100,000 through the loop several times, and consistently got
approx. 1/3 or 2/3 result.
For a good explanation of how it works, look at this site (linked from
Larry's link):
http://www.io.com/%7Ekmellis/monty.html
James
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Message has 1 Reply:
Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) though I admit it has been a long time since I have taken my probablity and statistics class. (...) Gosh, everyone is seizing on this: I didn't say it was and it has nothing to do with my answers!!! :-) (...) Sigh. Yes, I know that. (...) Yes, (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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