Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 20:40:25 GMT
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Viewed:
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2632 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, David Eaton writes:
> In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Bruce Schlickbernd writes:
> > Whew. You are way off in your probablity and statistics analysis: if you
> > want to double everything, then you would have to list 112 and 113 twice
> > also. They are *not* the same selection.
>
> See this one for a clearer picture:
> http://news.lugnet.com/off-topic/geek/?n=4210
I don't believe that to be a correct analysis so it clears up nothing,
though I admit it has been a long time since I have taken my probablity and
statistics class.
>
> > No, because he won't use the same algorithm since he then becomes
> > predictable, so he will vary the door revealed (and also the whole question
> > is nonsense since it would be a choice of a "zonk" (goat, cow, etc.) and a
> > lesser prize, and a greater prize (or even two equivalent prizes) since
> > Let's Make a Deal didn't use double-zonks like that)..
>
> That's not the problem presented, though.
Gosh, everyone is seizing on this: I didn't say it was and it has nothing to
do with my answers!!! :-)
> According to the problem, it's
> KNOWN that he ALWAYS reveals a zonk prize door that you didn't pick.
Sigh. Yes, I know that.
> No
> chance whatsoever that he'll act any differently. Given.
Yes, I know that.
> The host *does* use
> an algorithm.
Which is?
> Maybe not in the real-life-show, but this is an excersize in
> theoretical probability, not an imitation of real life. The given's are
> given, not subject to whimsy.
>
> > I tried the simulator: it supported my conclusions. Really!
>
> Which simulator? Which conclusion?
50/50. First one I found on the site Larry noted. If there are mutiple
ones, I didn't notice.
-->Bruce<--
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Message has 2 Replies:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) This one here? (URL) many trials? It is a *probability* after all, no guarantees about a short run of trials. I ran 30 "stay" and 30 "switch" and got roughly 40 and 60 as the two percentage results. Moving to the serious number cruncher, which (...) (24 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
| | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) Basically, each column decreases in liklihood as more choices are added. Start with one colum: Prob. Prize 1/3 1 1/3 2 1/3 3 Now, you get to choose a door. Since the prize door doesn't affect the probability: Prob. Prize Choice 1/9 1 1 1/9 1 2 (...) (24 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) See this one for a clearer picture: (URL)No, because he won't use the same algorithm since he then becomes (...) That's not the problem presented, though. According to the problem, it's KNOWN that he ALWAYS reveals a zonk prize door that you (...) (24 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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