Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 19:01:28 GMT
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Viewed:
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377 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Bruce Schlickbernd writes:
<snip>
> I think your analysis is incorrect, precisely because you did *not* list all
> outcomes.
>
> Choose Prize Door Revealed Possible choices
> 1 1 2 Stay (win). Switch (lose).
> 1 1 3 Stay (win). Switch (lose).
> 1 2 3 Stay (lose). Switch (win).
> 1 3 2 Stay (lose). Switch (win).
>
> Choose Prize Door Revealed Possible choices
> 2 2 1 Stay (win). Switch (lose).
> 2 2 3 Stay (win). Switch (lose).
> 2 1 3 Stay (lose). Switch (win).
> 2 3 1 Stay (lose). Switch (win).
>
> Choose Prize Door Revealed Possible choices
> 3 3 1 Stay (win). Switch (lose).
> 3 3 2 Stay (win). Switch (lose).
> 3 1 2 Stay (lose). Switch (win).
> 3 2 1 Stay (lose). Switch (win).
>
> 12 different door combinations with 24 outcomes: 12 win if you stay, 12 win
> if you switch. The nine you list is very incomplete.
>
> -->Bruce<--
So, like others suggest about knowing that one of the marbles is red, the
chance that the other one is red... the one that we know becomes basically
irrelevant to the chance--there are only 3 balls left that it could be so
it's 33 percent,
Or in this case, we eliminate one door by opening it and finding a goat,
there are only 2 doors left, one with the prize behind--so it's still 50/50
no matter if we switch or stay?
Human nature, as suggested, may factor into it--if the show host knows you
picked the right one, and he wanted you to switch, he would have to give you
the option of switching. If the contestant believes that the host has this
knowledge and 'ulterior motive' in presenting the switching possibility, do
you stay or switch?
Human nature factors into the mix when the host offers the option of switching.
I still like the 50 percent possibility tho.
Dave K
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) Liking it or not is irrelevant. The probabilities are what they are. And the answer is still 2/3 if you switch, given the premises. No matter whether you like it or not. Go to the site I gave you and read what is written there. (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) I think your analysis is incorrect, precisely because you did *not* list all outcomes. Choose Prize Door Revealed Possible choices 1 1 2 Stay (win). Switch (lose). 1 1 3 Stay (win). Switch (lose). 1 2 3 Stay (lose). Switch (win). 1 3 2 Stay (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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