Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 20:25:00 GMT
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Viewed:
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375 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Bruce Schlickbernd writes:
> Whew. You are way off in your probablity and statistics analysis: if you
> want to double everything, then you would have to list 112 and 113 twice
> also. They are *not* the same selection.
See this one for a clearer picture:
http://news.lugnet.com/off-topic/geek/?n=4210
> No, because he won't use the same algorithm since he then becomes
> predictable, so he will vary the door revealed (and also the whole question
> is nonsense since it would be a choice of a "zonk" (goat, cow, etc.) and a
> lesser prize, and a greater prize (or even two equivalent prizes) since
> Let's Make a Deal didn't use double-zonks like that)..
That's not the problem presented, though. According to the problem, it's
KNOWN that he ALWAYS reveals a zonk prize door that you didn't pick. No
chance whatsoever that he'll act any differently. Given. The host *does* use
an algorithm. Maybe not in the real-life-show, but this is an excersize in
theoretical probability, not an imitation of real life. The given's are
given, not subject to whimsy.
> I tried the simulator: it supported my conclusions. Really!
Which simulator? Which conclusion?
DaveE
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Message has 2 Replies:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) though I admit it has been a long time since I have taken my probablity and statistics class. (...) Gosh, everyone is seizing on this: I didn't say it was and it has nothing to do with my answers!!! :-) (...) Sigh. Yes, I know that. (...) Yes, (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
| | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) think that way, though I'll note I passed Calculus). I come up with 2/3 if you switch. A 1/3 chance that you have the right choice initially. The other two doors are an aggragate 2/3 chance. Even though one is eliminated, it is a wrong one, so (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) Whew. You are way off in your probablity and statistics analysis: if you want to double everything, then you would have to list 112 and 113 twice also. They are *not* the same selection. (...) and 1 1 2 (...) and 1 1 3 (...) (etc. snip) (...) (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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