Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 19:41:36 GMT
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Viewed:
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755 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Larry Pieniazek writes:
> In lugnet.off-topic.geek, David Koudys writes:
>
> > I still like the 50 percent possibility tho.
>
> Liking it or not is irrelevant. The probabilities are what they are.
>
> And the answer is still 2/3 if you switch, given the premises. No matter
> whether you like it or not.
>
> Go to the site I gave you and read what is written there.
Actually, it supports the 50/50. Host will always offers regardless of
whether you chose correctly or not (basic premise - choose the "host does
not know"): simulator runs 50/50. If it's a screw you scenario, then yes,
you switch, but I remember it being more like 50/50 on whether you got a
prize upgrade/downgrade (there wouldn't actually be two "zonks") which would
not support that scenario. I'll have to check with my game show expert
(Alphonso Smith - if Chris Weeks is going to the Gathering, he'll see him
there).
-->Bruce<--
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) This really bugged me about all the links Larry sent. They all claimed that there was some sort of "loophole" if you assume that the host has the option to either: - reveal the door you picked, showing a goat (in which case, yes, it's 50/50) - (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) Liking it or not is irrelevant. The probabilities are what they are. And the answer is still 2/3 if you switch, given the premises. No matter whether you like it or not. Go to the site I gave you and read what is written there. (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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