Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 20:15:36 GMT
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Viewed:
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726 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Bruce Schlickbernd writes:
> In lugnet.off-topic.geek, David Eaton writes:
<mucho snippage>
> > Regardless, because we *know* that the host *always* obeys certain rules (IE
> > he'll always reveal a goat-door that you didn't pick), we can equivalently
> > say that he always picks the lowest-numbered doors to reveal in case of a
> > tie, since he's ALREADY using an algorithm.
>
> No, because he won't use the same algorithm since he then becomes
> predictable, so he will vary the door revealed (and also the whole question
> is nonsense since it would be a choice of a "zonk" (goat, cow, etc.) and a
> lesser prize, and a greater prize (or even two equivalent prizes) since
> Let's Make a Deal didn't use double-zonks like that)..
Bruce - I see the confusion. You aren't solving the problem as presented:
"Now, here's a trickier one:
Ever watched the old game show "Let's Make a Deal"? Sometimes, they'd offer
people things similar to this scenario. You're a game show contestant. Bob
the host shows you 3 doors. You win whatever's behind the door you pick.
Behind 2 of the doors are goats. Behind the other door, there's a brand new
sports car.
You pick door X. Now, before Bob shows you what's behind door X, he opens up
door Y, and shows you... a goat! Bob now says you have a chance to change
your mind, and instead of picking door X, you can switch to door Z.
What's the probability that the sports car is behind door Z versus door X?"
As presented, the host "Bob" always opens a zonk prize that isn't the door
you picked.
James
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Message has 1 Reply:
Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) Whew. You are way off in your probablity and statistics analysis: if you want to double everything, then you would have to list 112 and 113 twice also. They are *not* the same selection. (...) and 1 1 2 (...) and 1 1 3 (...) (etc. snip) (...) (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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