Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 19:52:25 GMT
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Viewed:
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375 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, James Brown writes:
> You're also being incompletely rigorous. :) If you want to do an "all
> possible outcomes" probability check, you have to add in all the 'door
> revealed=prize' options which exist for the sake of the probabilities
> involved, but are never invoked because the host will never show you the
> winning door. It's been very thoroughly examined - the odds are 2/3. Check
> out the links in this thread, some of which have simulation programs to
> calculate the odds the long way for you.
Which is why those are left out: there never enter the scenario. Only those
that would actually happen are "invoked".
And the simulator supports my conclusions. Only if the host "cheats" does
the 2/3 option become statistically correct. :-)
-->Bruce<--
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Message has 1 Reply:
Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) You're also being incompletely rigorous. :) If you want to do an "all possible outcomes" probability check, you have to add in all the 'door revealed=prize' options which exist for the sake of the probabilities involved, but are never invoked (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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