Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Mon, 3 Mar 2003 22:34:33 GMT
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Viewed:
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2224 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Larry Pieniazek writes:
<snip>
>
> I think he's wrong because he's trying to reason about partial knowledge,
> and that always causes problems. Look at it as a draw without replacement
> instead. The order you reveal things doesn't influence outcomes, they were
> what they were.
>
> you drew two marbles, you looked at one. But when you drew the second marble
> it was a draw without replacement from the bag. You could have drawn,
> looked, drawn or drawn, drawn, looked and it's (in this case) logically
> equivalent.
>
> Think of it this way... you drew a marble. there are three left in the bag
> to draw. If the first marble is red, the three left to draw are one of each.
> So the chance that the second marble is red is 1 in 3. It doesn't in this
> case change what marbles were in the bag because you waited to look at the
> first one. IMHO. (1)
>
> 1 - But then I failed statistics the first time I took it. (2)
>
> 2 - However that was also the semester I got engaged, I never actually went
> to class, did homework or took any tests except the final.
Thanks Larry,
I'll add it to the rationale.
I failed gr. 12 advanced math once--was too busy being the editor of the
yearbook that particular year (and playing cards in the cafeteria) It was
amazing that I still took gr. 13 physics, chemistry and biology later, and
then I retook gr. 12 math (got 55 percent as my final mark)
Dave K
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Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) I think he's wrong because he's trying to reason about partial knowledge, and that always causes problems. Look at it as a draw without replacement instead. The order you reveal things doesn't influence outcomes, they were what they were. you (...) (24 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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