Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 20:01:39 GMT
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Viewed:
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395 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Bruce Schlickbernd writes:
> Actually, it supports the 50/50. Host will always offers regardless of
> whether you chose correctly or not (basic premise - choose the "host does
> not know"): simulator runs 50/50.
This really bugged me about all the links Larry sent. They all claimed that
there was some sort of "loophole" if you assume that the host has the option
to either:
- reveal the door you picked, showing a goat (in which case, yes, it's 50/50)
- reveal the door with the car (oops! You lose, no chance even to switch!)
There really ISN'T a loophole. It's *GIVEN* in the problem that the host
reveals a door you *DIDN'T* pick and reveals a zonk prize, *NOT* the car.
Other situtations don't factor into the equasion, because they're already
*KNOWN* not to have happened.
> If it's a screw you scenario, then yes, you switch,
I'm not sure I follow you here-- how is it a "screw you" scenario when you
(seem to?) admit that switching is advantageous to the contestant?
> but I remember it being more like 50/50 on whether you got a
> prize upgrade/downgrade (there wouldn't actually be two "zonks") which would
> not support that scenario. I'll have to check with my game show expert
> (Alphonso Smith - if Chris Weeks is going to the Gathering, he'll see him
> there).
Now-- that part is true. It's not like this is an accurate rendition of 100%
of the games played on Let's Make a Deal. In fact, I can't remember even
once when this scenario actually happened, since most of the time:
- people didn't know whether the revealed prize (not usually a zonk) was the
"best" prize
- people weren't given the chance to switch
- people's choices were revealed (IE you know you didn't get a zonk at
least, but you might not have gotten the top prize)
etc.
However, regardless, for the problem given, irrelevant of whether or not
it's an accurate rendition of the game show, the truth stands. It's better
to switch.
DaveE
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Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) Actually, it supports the 50/50. Host will always offers regardless of whether you chose correctly or not (basic premise - choose the "host does not know"): simulator runs 50/50. If it's a screw you scenario, then yes, you switch, but I (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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