Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 19:47:12 GMT
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Viewed:
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383 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Larry Pieniazek writes:
> In lugnet.off-topic.geek, David Koudys writes:
>
> > I still like the 50 percent possibility tho.
>
> Liking it or not is irrelevant. The probabilities are what they are.
>
> And the answer is still 2/3 if you switch, given the premises. No matter
> whether you like it or not.
>
> Go to the site I gave you and read what is written there.
Got it...
Goes into a fairly comprehensible walk-thru, but the point that makes it
obvious (as stated) is:
"
Imagine that there were a million doors. Also, after you have chosen your
door; Monty opens all but one of the remaining doors, showing you that they
are "losers." It's obvious that your first choice is wildly unlikely to have
been right. And isn't it obvious that of the other 999,999 doors that you
didn't choose; the one that he didn't open is wildly likely to be the one
with the prize?
"
I like it.
I renounce my 50/50
Dave K
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) I think I may have found the fallacy... (indulge me if you please) Here's a bag with 3 marbles in it--2 are red (goats, whatever), one is white (brand new car) Pick a random one out of the bag and hold it in your hand--don't look at it! What's (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) Liking it or not is irrelevant. The probabilities are what they are. And the answer is still 2/3 if you switch, given the premises. No matter whether you like it or not. Go to the site I gave you and read what is written there. (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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