Subject:
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Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Tue, 4 Mar 2003 05:06:12 GMT
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Viewed:
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329 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Dan Boger writes:
> I already proved that I should stay out of this... but. When you had 3
> doors to pick from, it was 1/3 that whatever door you choose is the
> correct one. However, after opening one of the doors you didn't pick
> (assuming the host is not opening the door with the prize), it's like a
> new question. Given two doors, pick one. One wins, one loses.
>
> I always thought that probability has no memory. if you rolled a die 10
> times, and got '1' in each roll... what's the chance of rolling a '1'
> next time? 1/6 - there's no memory involved. However, if you say
> "what's the chance of rolling 11 '1's in a row", that's a different
> question.
>
> Am I totally off base here?
Nope. The analysis that I have seen that argues for a different outcome than
1/2 has to do with the fact that you're being (or so it is argued) conveyed
more information than it seems.
That is, they KNOW which door is right, and by showing you a wrong one they
are telling you something more than just removing one possibility. (the
question is what are they telling you)
Me, I argue that the probability depends on how many contestants in the past
switched after they saw a goat.. if lots did, you should stay. If few did,
you should switch. This assumes they don't want to give out expensive
prizes. If in fact they DO want to give out prizes, reverse that. (just
kidding, you should always switch)
here is a site with some more info for the curious
http://www.mtsu.edu/~smcdanie/Webquest/Wequest/monte_hall_with_nav.htm
Dig into the links, the answer of why you should switch is there... as well
as this gem of a quote:
- start-
An earlier version, the Three Prisoner Problem, was analyzed in 1959 by
Martin Gardner in the journal Scientific American. He called it "a
wonderfully confusing little problem" and presciently noted that "in no
other branch of
mathematics is it so easy for experts to blunder as in probability theory."
- end -
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Larry Pieniazek writes: Another site I happened to stumble across (which is so chock full of math gadgets and java applets that I added it to the header...): (URL) this writeup of the problem, along with a simulator for you (...) (21 years ago, 2-Apr-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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| (...) I already proved that I should stay out of this... but. When you had 3 doors to pick from, it was 1/3 that whatever door you choose is the correct one. However, after opening one of the doors you didn't pick (assuming the host is not opening (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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