Subject:
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Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Wed, 21 Jul 2004 17:36:20 GMT
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Viewed:
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4070 times
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In lugnet.market.theory, Mark Riley wrote:
> In lugnet.market.theory, Larry Pieniazek wrote:
> > Just picking at a few numbers, don't disagree with the main thrust but accuracy
> > matters.
It would help if I realised Chris was talking about BrickShelf instead of
BrickLink. I still think the point stands though... not all users are current
users and not all users are serious AFOLs, it's (somewhat more?/about as/nearly
as?) likely that using the user count of BS underestimates as it
overestimates... same as for BL.
> Yeah, but the results are only as accurate as the guesstimates used as inputs -
> GIGO you know. This debate reminds me of the various number games used to
> justify (or not) the belief that extraterrestrial life exists. Since there are
> so many variables and each variable can be a magnitude or more off, the results
> point to the likelihood of ETL being anything from an extremely rare event to a
> universe positively teaming with life.
Yes, strangely enough, that's exactly what I said in my third to last paragraph,
which you snipped away... Sorry you missed it! I thought it was a rather clever
reference...
"(c.f. Drake's equation... either there are NO intelligent lifeforms other than
us in this galaxy OR there are millions... just a matter of a few different
factor values)"
> In any case, the "actual" percentage doesn't matter so much as what TLC believes
> that number to be. If Brad thought it might have been 5% of sales (and he
> wasn't just trying to flatter us), then that's supposedly what they've based
> their decisions upon.
Again, I'd reiterate, one more time, at the risk of repeating myself, :-) it's
not sales that really matter, in my view. It's influence.
See "Crossing the Chasm". We're not exactly like the raving lunatic pre early
adopters in that it's not a technology adoption being modeled, but we ARE just
as influential as they are
Which I think we may all be saying at the top of our lungs, not sure.
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| "Larry Pieniazek" <larry.(mylastname)@...areDOTcom> wrote in message news:I17q8K.EHH@lugnet.com... [ .... snipped ... ] (...) early (...) just (...) [ ... snipped ... ] I am not sure I think the Chasm model applies to this market but I may be (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) Yeah, but the results are only as accurate as the guesstimates used as inputs - GIGO you know. This debate reminds me of the various number games used to justify (or not) the belief that extraterrestrial life exists. Since there are so many (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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