Subject:
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Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Wed, 21 Jul 2004 15:20:22 GMT
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Viewed:
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3973 times
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Just picking at a few numbers, don't disagree with the main thrust but accuracy
matters.
In lugnet.market.theory, Chris Phillips wrote:
> Hmm... A quick check of BrickShelf shows that there are at least 24,000
> members.
That's a "Have been since it started" number. Not all members are current. Also,
not all members are serious. Many have a single feedback or none. This just came
up over there, in fact. You have to be a member to buy something even if you
just want to buy the present your kid is begging for this christmas. I get a
dozen or more "transients" each christmas season, and other sellers get more. So
a more realistic number is that maybe 1/3 of the current membership are
*serious* and *current* hardcore fans.
> If one out of every ten "serious" LEGO enthusiasts has an account over
> there, that would place our numbers at 240,000.
On the other hand if it's more like 1 in every 2 (which I think you actually cam
make a good argument for), that makes the number of serious fans at 8,000 (the
1/3 of members that are serious fans) * 2 (the scaleup factor) or 16,000
> If we spend an average of $500
> a year, that would account for $120 million in gross revenues.
or 8M under different assumptions.
> If BrickShelf has actually managed to get a full 10% of the worldwide AFOL
> community to sign up, that would be quite amazing indeed.
See above, I think it's quite possibly actually higher than that rather than
lower. Can't be sure.
> Sure, not all
> BrickShelf members are adults, but certainly most could be counted as hard-core
> fans.
Again, see above. This is not my experience. It's a very steeply tailing number.
only the top 20% or so of users have more than 10 feedbacks (indicative of
serious multiple purchasers)
(try this link, this is page 250 of sorted by feedback 20 per page, they're at 9
feedbacks and dropping:
http://www.bricklink.com/memberList.asp?pg=250&stateID=&countryID=&mDate=&showMe=&rID=&v=3&showCollage=
)
The problem with using a lot of factors in assumptions is that change a few
factors and you get wildly differing numbers.
(c.f. Drake's equation... either there are NO intelligent lifeforms other than
us in this galaxy OR there are millions... just a matter of a few different
factor values)
That said I still think we're important. I just don't think it's buying power,
it's influencer power. When we are happy we influence a lot of people in good
ways.
And LEGO has been doing things to make this fan happy, like sneaking nice parts
into sets just because they're cool. (the train door in the hovercraft base for
example)
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Message has 2 Replies:
 | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) Yeah, but the results are only as accurate as the guesstimates used as inputs - GIGO you know. This debate reminds me of the various number games used to justify (or not) the belief that extraterrestrial life exists. Since there are so many (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
| | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) I think we are in overall agreement. Just to clarify, I was talking about BrickSHELF not BrickLINK. I viewed a total of three folders on the "Recent" page there and found a BS member with an ID in the 24000+ range, which is how I estimated the (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) Hmm... A quick check of BrickShelf shows that there are at least 24,000 members. If one out of every ten "serious" LEGO enthusiasts has an account over there, that would place our numbers at 240,000. If we spend an average of $500 a year, that (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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