Subject:
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Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Wed, 21 Jul 2004 03:09:39 GMT
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Viewed:
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3861 times
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In lugnet.market.theory, J. Spencer Rezkalla wrote:
> Also one can watch how various highly desirable and limited production AFOL
> items such as the bulk color packs or the Maersk sets have sold to get
> insight on the total market of buyers. Hint: the production runs have only
> been in the tens of thousands and none of these items has sold out overnight
> or even within a month.
There are a lot of factors that should be considered there, though. Even many
LUGNET users weren't sure which bulk packs were the old colors and which were
the new, and it was really only publicized here on LUGNET, so it's unlikely that
any closet AFOLs were even aware that they'd been produced at all, much less
which ones they should be buying, and it's possible that many people skipped
them because it's cheaper to buy the specific bricks they need on Bricklink
rather than buy large quantities of bulk mixed packs in order to get the
individual pieces they actually need.
The Maersk ship was quite expensive, and I know at least a few MichLUG members
who were drooling over them, but didn't have the money to buy any. I didn't
really have any pressing interest in buying one regardless of the cost because
it wasn't part of a theme that I collect, and I don't really have any specific
use for the parts. I'm sure there were others who felt the same way.
Conversely, the ISD was billed as the best-selling set at LEGO S@H during its
first full year of release, and it's the most expensive set they've ever sold to
the general public (there's a corporate seminar+bricks that I believe runs about
$10,000, but...), which largely rules out the likelihood that many kids were
ordering them with their allowances.
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) Those are all valid possibilities that are unknowns in any analysis. Still, I think that with a few reasonable order of magnitude conjectures it's very difficult to make a financial case that we (serious AFOLs) represent 5% of TLC revenue. I'd (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) Lego revenue in 2002 was reported to be $1.6 billion. 5% of revenue is $80 million. You can play up a lot of scenarios with various AFOL numbers, but you'll find it takes a lot of buyers to reasonably account for $80 million in yearly sales. (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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