Subject:
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Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Wed, 21 Jul 2004 02:07:27 GMT
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Viewed:
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3754 times
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In lugnet.market.theory, David Eaton wrote:
> In lugnet.market.theory, Benjamin Medinets wrote:
> > The actual adult fan purchase is probably higher, but not MUCH higher.
> > As far a # of fans, I think the amount is LESS than 1% of the total
> > consumer base.
>
> I remember doing calculations long ago, using myself as a 'rough guess' and
> coming up with pathetically small numbers. Something like 1-2% of Lego's sales;
> and that was based on roughly how many AFOLs were 'out there', how much Lego
> said it was making in DK (or whatever that currency is they mentioned on their
> annual report), and using myself as an approximate guess for how much your
> average AFOL spent on Lego. In fact, I recall OVER-estimating as far as money
> spent and # of AFOL's, just so I could get a nice upper bound. Was still pretty
> pathetic. To be honest, I was always suprised to hear 5%, thinking that was way
> too high.
Lego revenue in 2002 was reported to be $1.6 billion. 5% of revenue is $80
million. You can play up a lot of scenarios with various AFOL numbers, but
you'll find it takes a lot of buyers to reasonably account for $80 million in
yearly sales. For instance Lugnet lists 2500 members. Each member would have to
spend $32,000 a year. 10,000 fans would have to spend $8000/yr etc, etc.
There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the global community of serious AFOLs
doesn't number more than a couple of thousand worldwide. Brickfest only attracts
a couple of hundred participants each year. Membership numbers in LUGs is also
fairly easy to roughly estimate - at least to the proper order of magnitude.
Also one can watch how various highly desirable and limited production AFOL
items such as the bulk color packs or the Maersk sets have sold to get insight
on the total market of buyers. Hint: the production runs have only been in the
tens of thousands and none of these items has sold out overnight or even within
a month.
All the evidence I can find points to the fact that we are not nearly as
financially important to TLC as we want to think.
I also want to make a point that just because AFOLs are not a major portion of
Lego's customer base does that mean that Lego doesn't care about us as
customers. Again there is plenty of evidence to the contrary: ISD, Santa Fe,
bulk packs, etc. Lego is more than willing to help us out, but there has to be a
business case to do it. Now is that really unreasonable?
Spencer
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Message has 3 Replies:
 | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) The big business case, it seems to me, is not our personal volume, but our influence on others by our activities. To pick just one example... How much is a 3 minute spot on a local morning newscast (in Detroit, say), extolling the virtues of (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
| | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) There are a lot of factors that should be considered there, though. Even many LUGNET users weren't sure which bulk packs were the old colors and which were the new, and it was really only publicized here on LUGNET, so it's unlikely that any (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
| | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) Hmm... A quick check of BrickShelf shows that there are at least 24,000 members. If one out of every ten "serious" LEGO enthusiasts has an account over there, that would place our numbers at 240,000. If we spend an average of $500 a year, that (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) I remember doing calculations long ago, using myself as a 'rough guess' and coming up with pathetically small numbers. Something like 1-2% of Lego's sales; and that was based on roughly how many AFOLs were 'out there', how much Lego said it (...) (20 years ago, 20-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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