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In lugnet.market.theory, J. Spencer Rezkalla wrote:
> In lugnet.market.theory, David Eaton wrote:
> > In lugnet.market.theory, Benjamin Medinets wrote:
> > > The actual adult fan purchase is probably higher, but not MUCH higher.
> > > As far a # of fans, I think the amount is LESS than 1% of the total
> > > consumer base.
> >
> > I remember doing calculations long ago, using myself as a 'rough guess' and
> > coming up with pathetically small numbers. Something like 1-2% of Lego's sales;
> > and that was based on roughly how many AFOLs were 'out there', how much Lego
> > said it was making in DK (or whatever that currency is they mentioned on their
> > annual report), and using myself as an approximate guess for how much your
> > average AFOL spent on Lego. In fact, I recall OVER-estimating as far as money
> > spent and # of AFOL's, just so I could get a nice upper bound. Was still pretty
> > pathetic. To be honest, I was always suprised to hear 5%, thinking that was way
> > too high.
>
> Lego revenue in 2002 was reported to be $1.6 billion. 5% of revenue is $80
> million. You can play up a lot of scenarios with various AFOL numbers, but
> you'll find it takes a lot of buyers to reasonably account for $80 million in
> yearly sales. For instance Lugnet lists 2500 members. Each member would have to
> spend $32,000 a year. 10,000 fans would have to spend $8000/yr etc, etc.
>
> There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the global community of serious AFOLs
> doesn't number more than a couple of thousand worldwide. Brickfest only attracts
> a couple of hundred participants each year. Membership numbers in LUGs is also
> fairly easy to roughly estimate - at least to the proper order of magnitude.
> Also one can watch how various highly desirable and limited production AFOL
> items such as the bulk color packs or the Maersk sets have sold to get insight
> on the total market of buyers. Hint: the production runs have only been in the
> tens of thousands and none of these items has sold out overnight or even within
> a month.
Hmm... A quick check of BrickShelf shows that there are at least 24,000
members. If one out of every ten "serious" LEGO enthusiasts has an account over
there, that would place our numbers at 240,000. If we spend an average of $500
a year, that would account for $120 million in gross revenues.
If BrickShelf has actually managed to get a full 10% of the worldwide AFOL
community to sign up, that would be quite amazing indeed. Sure, not all
BrickShelf members are adults, but certainly most could be counted as hard-core
fans. And be careful about assuming that all AFOLs are LUGNET members. For
example, NELUG has at least 10 times as many people on our mailing list as I see
posting here on LUGNET, and I would be quite surprised if we have signed up a
majority of the actual New England AFOL population. I routinely meet adults
drooling in the LEGO aisle who have never heard of either LUGNET or NELUG.
I know quite a few adults who spend $500 every month on LEGO. Up until this
year, I was very solidly in that category myself. I also know many parents of
small children who "love" LEGO, yet none of these families spend more than $200
per year. Most childhood LEGO collections that I've ever seen can fit into a
single bin or bag. I personally have at least 40 bins of bulk storage that I
don't even count among my core LEGO collection.
We can dispute the numbers until we're bley in the face. But the simple fact is
that we are a large, dedicated, and influential group of customers. No
successful company (not even Microsoft) has gotten where it is by knowingly
turning away good customers. Monty Python said it best: "Never kill a
customer!"
TLC has done some wonderful things for us, but they have also done some things
that no sensible company would do to their most dedicated and influential market
segment. After seven months of reading the exhaustive debate on this topic, I
still haven't seen a single compelling argument that shows how they are going to
increase sales to people who "won't even notice the color change" by $120M.
- Chris.
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Message has 2 Replies:
 | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| Just picking at a few numbers, don't disagree with the main thrust but accuracy matters. (...) That's a "Have been since it started" number. Not all members are current. Also, not all members are serious. Many have a single feedback or none. This (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
| | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) That's never been my assumption, but it's a good place to start. While all Lugnet members are AFOLs, not all of them would qualify in my book as "serious AFOLs". I should also clarify that my definition of "serious AFOL" is probably different (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) Lego revenue in 2002 was reported to be $1.6 billion. 5% of revenue is $80 million. You can play up a lot of scenarios with various AFOL numbers, but you'll find it takes a lot of buyers to reasonably account for $80 million in yearly sales. (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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