Subject:
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Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Wed, 21 Jul 2004 17:03:34 GMT
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Viewed:
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3948 times
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In lugnet.market.theory, Larry Pieniazek wrote:
> Just picking at a few numbers, don't disagree with the main thrust but
> accuracy matters.
>
> In lugnet.market.theory, Chris Phillips wrote:
>
> > Hmm... A quick check of BrickShelf shows that there are at least 24,000
> > members.
>
> That's a "Have been since it started" number. Not all members are current. Also,
> not all members are serious. Many have a single feedback or none. This just came
> up over there, in fact. You have to be a member to buy something even if you
> just want to buy the present your kid is begging for this christmas. I get a
> dozen or more "transients" each christmas season, and other sellers get more. So
> a more realistic number is that maybe 1/3 of the current membership are
> *serious* and *current* hardcore fans.
I think we are in overall agreement. Just to clarify, I was talking about
BrickSHELF not BrickLINK. I viewed a total of three folders on the "Recent"
page there and found a BS member with an ID in the 24000+ range, which is how I
estimated the number of members there. The actual number could be much higher,
and of course not all members are active members.
If you consider that each of BrickShelf and BrickLink have 25,000 members, how
likely is it that at least some of these people are not members of both subsets?
> > If one out of every ten "serious" LEGO enthusiasts has an account over
> > there, that would place our numbers at 240,000.
>
> On the other hand if it's more like 1 in every 2 (which I think you actually cam
> make a good argument for), that makes the number of serious fans at 8,000 (the
> 1/3 of members that are serious fans) * 2 (the scaleup factor) or 16,000
If BrickLink could even claim to have 50% of the worldwide AFOL population as
members then TLC should just pull the plug on all their other marketing efforts
toward us and buy that puppy up.
LUGNET and BrickLink are primarily English-language forums. There are a lot of
European, South American, and Far East LEGO customers (to name just a few
localities) that are likely under-represented in any estimates based on this
kind of analysis. Furthermore, LEGO is not an inherently online hobby, so I
find it strange that people generally assume that most/all AFOLS are represented
here. As I stated earlier, I frequently meet adults who use LEGO who have never
even heard of LUGNET.
If you consider that not everyone who uses LEGO participates online, and that
not everyone who reads LUGNET is a paid member or even a poster, and that LUGNET
is only one of several popular online forums for discussing this hobby, I think
you would have to agree that paid LUGNET membership, or BrickLink membership
would represent only the tip of the proverbial iceberg. When you string
together the multipliers involved here (even if you assume extremely low
multipliers) you would still have to conclude that there are probably well over
100,000 adults worldwide who use this "childrens' toy." Heck, $50M here, $50M
there, pretty soon you're talking real money.
> > If we spend an average of $500
> > a year, that would account for $120 million in gross revenues.
>
> or 8M under different assumptions.
>
> > If BrickShelf has actually managed to get a full 10% of the worldwide AFOL
> > community to sign up, that would be quite amazing indeed.
>
> See above, I think it's quite possibly actually higher than that rather than
> lower. Can't be sure.
>
> > Sure, not all
> > BrickShelf members are adults, but certainly most could be counted as hard-core
> > fans.
>
> Again, see above. This is not my experience. It's a very steeply tailing number.
> only the top 20% or so of users have more than 10 feedbacks (indicative of
> serious multiple purchasers)
>
> (try this link, this is page 250 of sorted by feedback 20 per page, they're at 9
> feedbacks and dropping:
> http://www.bricklink.com/memberList.asp?pg=250&stateID=&countryID=&mDate=&showMe=&rID=&v=3&showCollage=
> )
So what this tells me is that BrickLink alone has 5,000 "serious" buyers. (I
myself barely make the cut with a mere 13 feedback points.) I might believe
that this number could represent 50% of the English-speaking, Internet-saavy,
online-purchasing, worldwide AFOL population, but that only reinforces my point
that there are probably well over 100,000 AFOLs worldwide. (I wonder what
percentage of BrickLink sellers even ship international orders?)
> The problem with using a lot of factors in assumptions is that change a few
> factors and you get wildly differing numbers.
>
> (c.f. Drake's equation... either there are NO intelligent lifeforms other than
> us in this galaxy OR there are millions... just a matter of a few different
> factor values)
>
> That said I still think we're important. I just don't think it's buying power,
> it's influencer power. When we are happy we influence a lot of people in good
> ways.
<apples+oranges>
Microsoft got where they are today, not by pursuing 95% of the desktop software
market, but by pursuing 100% of that market. (Not saying they have achieved
that goal, but that was their stated mission from the day Bill dropped out of
Harvard.) MS just announced that they will issue a stock dividend to
shareholders that will net Bill alone a tidy $3.6 billion later this year. For
those keeping score, this is more than double TLC's reported gross revenue for
2002. Not bad for a company that makes its money selling clones of
higher-quality products invented by others.
</apples+oranges>
> And LEGO has been doing things to make this fan happy, like sneaking nice parts
> into sets just because they're cool. (the train door in the hovercraft base for
> example)
Penny wise, pound foolish. They do small things that we like, but then do major
things that we hate. And then they tell us that we're not important to them.
Whether the 5% number is true or not, it's not good cusomer relations any way
you dice it. I absolutely love Pick-a-Brick, but I used to buy more cups every
time I went into the store than I have bought so far this year.
- Chris.
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) They've never said that. 5% is simply 5%. Each company decision has a business case behind it. Certain AFOL wants have favorable cases, others don't. You may believe their business analysis is inherently flawed in some way, but unless you can (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| Just picking at a few numbers, don't disagree with the main thrust but accuracy matters. (...) That's a "Have been since it started" number. Not all members are current. Also, not all members are serious. Many have a single feedback or none. This (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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