Subject:
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Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Tue, 20 Jul 2004 23:31:20 GMT
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Viewed:
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3672 times
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In lugnet.market.theory, Benjamin Medinets wrote:
> The actual adult fan purchase is probably higher, but not MUCH higher.
> As far a # of fans, I think the amount is LESS than 1% of the total
> consumer base.
I remember doing calculations long ago, using myself as a 'rough guess' and
coming up with pathetically small numbers. Something like 1-2% of Lego's sales;
and that was based on roughly how many AFOLs were 'out there', how much Lego
said it was making in DK (or whatever that currency is they mentioned on their
annual report), and using myself as an approximate guess for how much your
average AFOL spent on Lego. In fact, I recall OVER-estimating as far as money
spent and # of AFOL's, just so I could get a nice upper bound. Was still pretty
pathetic. To be honest, I was always suprised to hear 5%, thinking that was way
too high.
'Course, I'm also always suprised how amazingly little AFOL's actually spend on
Lego. In NELUG, I seem to be on the high end for AFOL's, usually buying sets
new, not really waiting for huge sales, etc. Most everyone else waits for
discounts and buys ONLY what they need via BrickLink/Ebay. 'Course being one of
the few without a wife to give me a good slap on the wrist for buying Lego, and
also being without kids to further strap my budget, again, I think I'm a higher
end buyer than your *average* AFOL.
Your average AFOL doesn't really attend Brick events, only occasionally attends
or knows about local LUG groups, and at best lurks around on Lego sites, maybe
occasionally throwing in a post. I sort of assume that they're not spending the
gross amounts that many of us more 'hardcore' fans are. I'd love to guess that
they're spending a couple thousand per year on Lego (I know I do!) but I'd wager
it's more like $500.
DaveE
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) Lego revenue in 2002 was reported to be $1.6 billion. 5% of revenue is $80 million. You can play up a lot of scenarios with various AFOL numbers, but you'll find it takes a lot of buyers to reasonably account for $80 million in yearly sales. (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Fed UP!!!!!!!!
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| (...) I have to agree with this theory. True Jake did say that AFOL's did represent a MERE 5% of sales, this does not account for the true value. Major stores do not keep track of who buys their stock (or who it is for). The actual adult fan (...) (20 years ago, 20-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory, FTX)
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