Subject:
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Drake Equation (was: Re: Some great Space info and dicussion)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.space
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Date:
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Wed, 22 Jan 2003 09:24:39 GMT
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Viewed:
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1017 times
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In lugnet.space, Frank Filz writes:
> James Brown wrote:
> > And that's not taking into account the possibility that any of those 50
> > million sites evolved a culture before you did, or any of a gazillion other
> > factors.
>
> I agree that the numbers seem staggering. On the other hand, clearly the
> number of interstellar civilizations is below some threshold. Of course
> part of the premise is also that the first civilization to make it to
> interstellar capability wipes out all subsequent ones, at least within
> some radius. Remember that you announce you're on the way to
> interstellar civilization 10s of years before you get there. Also,
> assuming the interstellar travel is limited by the speed of light, you
> always have these 10s of years before their ship can reach you, which
> means you can reach them first (and presumably the civilization that has
> been at it longer has somewhat faster more efficient ships).
A minor tangent, but it's got a pointer to a neat toy.
The Drake Equation (1961) is the classic articulation of the
potential for technological--and communicative--civilizations.
There's a neat toy at www.seti.org, too, that lets you plug in
values.
The basic "Drake Equation" info and site are at:
http://www.seti.org/seti/seti_science/drake_equation.html
One might also check out the book "First Contact," which
is a nice collection of essays; it was published around 1990,
and I forget off hand who edited it. It includes some very
interesting musings about the possible reaction of paranoid
civilizations to new noises in the neighborhood (including
the idea that a probe might be placed in the system by sub-
luminal methods; when it picks up noise, the robotic bomber
is duly dispatched.)
And, of course, it need not be pointed out too sharply that
intelligence has yet to show itself as anything other than
an evolutionary dead-end. Our track record is not incredibly
impressive (but I'd like to be optimistic).
best
LFB
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Message has 2 Replies:
Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: Some great Space info and dicussion
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| (...) I agree that the numbers seem staggering. On the other hand, clearly the number of interstellar civilizations is below some threshold. Of course part of the premise is also that the first civilization to make it to interstellar capability (...) (21 years ago, 17-Jan-03, to lugnet.space)
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