Subject:
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Re: Slim pickings everwhere (Was: Slim Pickings at Target)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Tue, 28 Dec 1999 02:28:04 GMT
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Viewed:
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737 times
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Of course, the other snafu is that existing forecasting software works by the
SKU, on products that are available over a period long enough to amass a
statistical base. This kind of blows the system for new products, which is
basically the scenario you describe below.
Works for me!
- Greg
Kevin Salm wrote:
>
> In lugnet.market.theory, Greg Crisp writes:
> > A couple of comments:
> >
> > 1. Most large retail chains these days use inventory forecasting software, • such
> > as IBM's INFOREM, that does all sorts of statistical analysis on past sales
> > trends (per SKU, incidentally) to forecast probable sales. These forecasts • are
> > turned in to the orders that are sent to the distributor. An additional twist
> > on this is when the retailer trusts the distributor enough to give them the • keys
> > to the process. The vendor then manages the retailer's inventory for them. • Not
> > sure if TRU or TLC go this far with it, but I am sure they use some sort of
> > forecasting software to manage this.
>
>
> I have no argument or disagreement with what you say. However, the added twist
> to this is that whoever does the actual ordering for the large chains (at
> corporate or warehouse-by-warehouse region) has to do so with very little
> information from TLC.
>
> This is due to many factors.
>
> During the toy fair season (January mostly, I believe) toy manufacturers and
> distributors show thier upcoming product lines. It is hard for us to know how
> much advanced information TLC has at this point. I am sure that the majority
> of new items are on live display but many may not be as they are still under
> development. It is at this time of year that dealers and end retailers must
> submit their orders for the coming months. This includes expected delivery
> dates as late in the year as October and November, depending upon the dealer
> [1] (I'm talking size of dealer here--independent versus mega-retailer).
>
> This toy fair ordering is done mostly with an order form that includes
> information which may only include Item number, item theme, set name, number of
> pieces, MSRP, and case pack count. Except for those specific items on display
> at the Toy Fairs, no pictures or images may be available at the time of
> ordering. The order sheet is often just a few pages with no pictures of the
> Lego sets at all.
> So, esentially, the dealers are ordering items that they do not know much
> about. And beyond the toy fairs, this system continues throughout the year. [2]
>
> TLC does produe full-color dealer catalogs, but these are most often
> distributed well after the major ordering period of toy fair is over. They are
> used to help retailers order more stock, but again, this stock has targeted
> delivery dates of several months away. [3]
>
> There may be other factors that I am personally unaware of, and if anyone knows
> specifics, I am sure we would all like to be better informed.
>
> 1. One independent retailer I know places advance orders for Lego at the toy
> fairs for expected delivery through at least July with the option of reordering
> for October delivery in May and then Holiday delivery as early as June or July.
>
> 2. read #1 above
>
> 3. Even though the dealer catalogs arrive before the product, it has to be
> ordered before the catalog arrives in most cases. Take the 200 SW for example:
> Dealers received the catalogs in the late fall, but orders had to be placed
> for the items in the catalogs months before making the catalog somewhat
> useless. As stated before, they ARE helpful for re-orders, however.
--
G. Crisp - gcrisp@mindspring.com
"Indian, indian, what did you die for? Indian says 'Nothing at all.'"
-- Jim Morrison
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