Subject:
|
Re: Slim pickings everwhere (Was: Slim Pickings at Target)
|
Newsgroups:
|
lugnet.market.theory
|
Date:
|
Mon, 27 Dec 1999 21:39:27 GMT
|
Viewed:
|
466 times
|
| |
|
|
In lugnet.market.theory, Greg Crisp writes:
> A couple of comments:
>
> 1. Most large retail chains these days use inventory forecasting software, • such
> as IBM's INFOREM, that does all sorts of statistical analysis on past sales
> trends (per SKU, incidentally) to forecast probable sales. These forecasts • are
> turned in to the orders that are sent to the distributor. An additional twist
> on this is when the retailer trusts the distributor enough to give them the • keys
> to the process. The vendor then manages the retailer's inventory for them. • Not
> sure if TRU or TLC go this far with it, but I am sure they use some sort of
> forecasting software to manage this.
I have no argument or disagreement with what you say. However, the added twist
to this is that whoever does the actual ordering for the large chains (at
corporate or warehouse-by-warehouse region) has to do so with very little
information from TLC.
This is due to many factors.
During the toy fair season (January mostly, I believe) toy manufacturers and
distributors show thier upcoming product lines. It is hard for us to know how
much advanced information TLC has at this point. I am sure that the majority
of new items are on live display but many may not be as they are still under
development. It is at this time of year that dealers and end retailers must
submit their orders for the coming months. This includes expected delivery
dates as late in the year as October and November, depending upon the dealer
[1] (I'm talking size of dealer here--independent versus mega-retailer).
This toy fair ordering is done mostly with an order form that includes
information which may only include Item number, item theme, set name, number of
pieces, MSRP, and case pack count. Except for those specific items on display
at the Toy Fairs, no pictures or images may be available at the time of
ordering. The order sheet is often just a few pages with no pictures of the
Lego sets at all.
So, esentially, the dealers are ordering items that they do not know much
about. And beyond the toy fairs, this system continues throughout the year. [2]
TLC does produe full-color dealer catalogs, but these are most often
distributed well after the major ordering period of toy fair is over. They are
used to help retailers order more stock, but again, this stock has targeted
delivery dates of several months away. [3]
There may be other factors that I am personally unaware of, and if anyone knows
specifics, I am sure we would all like to be better informed.
1. One independent retailer I know places advance orders for Lego at the toy
fairs for expected delivery through at least July with the option of reordering
for October delivery in May and then Holiday delivery as early as June or July.
2. read #1 above
3. Even though the dealer catalogs arrive before the product, it has to be
ordered before the catalog arrives in most cases. Take the 200 SW for example:
Dealers received the catalogs in the late fall, but orders had to be placed
for the items in the catalogs months before making the catalog somewhat
useless. As stated before, they ARE helpful for re-orders, however.
|
|
Message has 1 Reply:
Message is in Reply To:
44 Messages in This Thread:
 
  
- Entire Thread on One Page:
- Nested:
All | Brief | Compact | Dots
Linear:
All | Brief | Compact
This Message and its Replies on One Page:
- Nested:
All | Brief | Compact | Dots
Linear:
All | Brief | Compact
|
|
|
|
