Subject:
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Re: Slim pickings everwhere (Was: Slim Pickings at Target)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.shopping
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Followup-To:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Mon, 27 Dec 1999 14:12:19 GMT
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Reply-To:
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rsanders@gate.*Spamcake*net
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Viewed:
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401 times
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Kevin,
My outlook on what you have observed...
Over the last four months, I have visited a fair number of TRUs seeking
old product. The store stock situation (with respect to Lego) varies
widely. I believe that there are a number of contributing factors:
o local-income/disposable-cash demographics
o how well that particular TRU is managed (with special emphasis on
inventory control)
o immediate competition (i.e. how close is the nearest WM, KM, KB, etc)
o the internet (one manager told me about a *rush* of phone orders when
someone posted that he had Pirate stock)
o supply chain situation.
To the best of my knowledge, TRU does not actively inventory-balance
between stores. TRU will transfer individual items, at customers
request, between stores which are serviced by the same warehouse. I have
seen many TRU stores with no Time-Cruisers stock at all, then I walked
into one store and found 13 copies of 6494 Time Lab. That was in late
November. Next week, I'll go back in that direction and see how
christmas affected that stock.
I have seen TRUs with low stock as far back as mid November. As late as
one week ago, I saw two TRUs with full shelves. The local market has a
great bearing on what items sell and at what price point people loose
interest. This year has seen a fair amount of disposable cash in the
flow. My local WalMart Super Center has a last minute toy rush (on
Friday) that defies anything I have seen. For better or worse, Lego
products only got a small piece of the action. ALl of the buckets and
tubs are gone. Some sets sold, but not so many that you see it. They
still have nine copies of Mos Espa on the shelf.
I *suspect* that TLC has a fixed number of production runs for a given
set (1...n). They make as many as they have immediate orders for and as
much as they need warehouse stock (and room to store it). When TLC does
the last run, then thats *probably* it. No more. I base this on previous
discussions here and what we *suspect* is the distribution of TLC
manufacturing (i.e. special parts made in Europe, etc). Each chain tries
to estimate how many to buy, distribute, warehouse, etc. I think this is
called 'retail forcasting'. Some years the forcast is good, others not
so good. All sales points have this problem. Apple Computer used to have
major problems estimating demand for Mac models, They both overestimated
and underestimated with dire consequences. The solution for most
business types has been to orient the production side to mate up with
the demand side. Just in time, if you will. Because of the variety of
special parts, (I *suspect*) that TLC operates wholly internally (no
external parts suppliers) meaning that TLC has no one to fall back on if
one set becomes a really hot seller. It also means that TLC, and the
various chains, wind up with large stock of some poor sellers (I think
one example might be Shark Attack).
So the final result of poor forcasting, inventory accumulation and
regional demographics/preferences is that odd 'blips' of stock show up
where you least expect it. Several months back I mentioned about my
run-in with TRUs inventory tracking system and how you 'just cant trust
it'. I've heard other annecdotal tidbits: one store told me the listed
inventory of ~20 purple buckets "probably doesn't exist, because we had
a sidewalk sale and things were pretty confused". Ye gods. What good is
an inventory system if you cannot trust it. What good is an inventory
system if you do not periodically check the shelves and adjust to match
actual inventory. What good is an inventory system if the home office
(KM in this instance) has decided that this item is long gone, dropped
it from the database and the item in question has no package price
marking whatsoever. I had this happen at least 10-15 times at KM. The
last time was for a MB Viking Ship. They had no idea what to charge and
had to pull a number out of thin air. I have had TRU store managers
swear up and down (figuratively) that only the home office can adjust
the price below the scanned one. Then I drive down the road 30 miles (or
whatever) and watch a different manager do exactly that. Excuse me if
I'm ranting, dealing with TRUs can be incredibly frustrating.
To sum up, distribution of TLC products seems to be a top-down inverted
tree structure, with TLC being at the root and retail points at the
leaves. Product moves only in one direction, down. Product ends up being
misbalanced at the leaves and profits are lost. No one seems to give a
wit about balancing the supply and demand other than those of us who
'harvest' these 'blips' and stuff it up on an auction site (or lugnet or
wherever). My standing joke is that ' I'm like that little fish that
rides around on the back of the shark. I keep the big fish clean. '
f.ups to lugnet.market.theory
Ray
Kevin Salm wrote:
>
> Of the three TRU stores that I frequent I have seen something this holiday
> season that I have never seen before. The supply of Lego in the store is way
> down. Almost no restocks on current sets [1] and the supply of 2000 sets is
> limited. [2] TRU places overstock above the sales shelves on shelving that can
> be reached by a ladder (or really tall person) but today all three stores had
> for the most part--NO-- overstock supply. And the shelves are not that full
> either.
>
> Holiday sales of Lego at these 3 TRU stores has been very strong. Don't know
> if that is unusual or not. But the small supply of Lego in the stores is
> amazing to me. Either these stores have not ordered enough from the warehouse
> or the warehouse simply does not have the supply of Lego to send. I suspect a
> bit of both, more the latter.[3]
>
> I took time at one TRU today and orgaized the Lego shelves for them so that
> there is only one facing of each set. Only Mindstorms, Rock Raiders and
> Adventurers is fully stocked. SW is missing the X-Wing and Tie/Y-Wing sets,
> Anakin Podracer, plus the Snowspeeder. No SpacePort Simulation Station, no
> Chrome Chrushers or Tunnel Transports, No Model Team Red Fury or Jr. Roadside
> Repair, and no Technic hardly at all except for the eternally marked-down
> CyberPuke sets. If you want the Tow-N-Go or Spiders Secret or LightSaber Duel,
> there are plenty of those, however.
>
> 1. Many of these missing sets have been out of stock for the last two weeks.
>
> 2. 2000 sets only appeared about ten days ago and sales have been strong.
> Many are already sold out. No overstock of these is beyond my comprehension.
>
> 3. TLC has had trouble keeping up with demand since before SW came out. It
> seems to be continuing.
>
> Kevin Salm
> ....Gray Brick enthusiast....
>
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