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(...) I remember doing calculations long ago, using myself as a 'rough guess' and coming up with pathetically small numbers. Something like 1-2% of Lego's sales; and that was based on roughly how many AFOLs were 'out there', how much Lego said it (...) (20 years ago, 20-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) Lego revenue in 2002 was reported to be $1.6 billion. 5% of revenue is $80 million. You can play up a lot of scenarios with various AFOL numbers, but you'll find it takes a lot of buyers to reasonably account for $80 million in yearly sales. (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) The big business case, it seems to me, is not our personal volume, but our influence on others by our activities. To pick just one example... How much is a 3 minute spot on a local morning newscast (in Detroit, say), extolling the virtues of (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) There are a lot of factors that should be considered there, though. Even many LUGNET users weren't sure which bulk packs were the old colors and which were the new, and it was really only publicized here on LUGNET, so it's unlikely that any (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) Certainly. Three minutes of free TV advertising isn't cheap in any market - even Detroit hehe. But I have to wonder if our train shows really have a positive effect on Lego sales. No doubt people love the layouts, but on some level I think it (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) Did I read that one correctly? ;-) -Tim XFUT -> o-t.fun (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory, lugnet.off-topic.fun)
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(...) Those are all valid possibilities that are unknowns in any analysis. Still, I think that with a few reasonable order of magnitude conjectures it's very difficult to make a financial case that we (serious AFOLs) represent 5% of TLC revenue. I'd (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) Uh yea... it's time for me to go to bed! Spencer (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.off-topic.fun)
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(...) It's not the "free" part that gets ya. It's the "with donation". (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.off-topic.fun)
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(...) Hmm... A quick check of BrickShelf shows that there are at least 24,000 members. If one out of every ten "serious" LEGO enthusiasts has an account over there, that would place our numbers at 240,000. If we spend an average of $500 a year, that (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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Just picking at a few numbers, don't disagree with the main thrust but accuracy matters. (...) That's a "Have been since it started" number. Not all members are current. Also, not all members are serious. Many have a single feedback or none. This (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) Yeah, but the results are only as accurate as the guesstimates used as inputs - GIGO you know. This debate reminds me of the various number games used to justify (or not) the belief that extraterrestrial life exists. Since there are so many (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) That's never been my assumption, but it's a good place to start. While all Lugnet members are AFOLs, not all of them would qualify in my book as "serious AFOLs". I should also clarify that my definition of "serious AFOL" is probably different (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) I think we are in overall agreement. Just to clarify, I was talking about BrickSHELF not BrickLINK. I viewed a total of three folders on the "Recent" page there and found a BS member with an ID in the 24000+ range, which is how I estimated the (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) They've never said that. 5% is simply 5%. Each company decision has a business case behind it. Certain AFOL wants have favorable cases, others don't. You may believe their business analysis is inherently flawed in some way, but unless you can (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) Minor detail: not all LUGNET members are AFOLs, since AFOL stands for Adult Fan Of LEGO and only people 18+ are adults. I am a TFOL, by the way, and what you would call a 'serious AFOL' Nathan Wells (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory, FTX)
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(...) It would help if I realised Chris was talking about BrickShelf instead of BrickLink. I still think the point stands though... not all users are current users and not all users are serious AFOLs, it's (somewhat more?/about as/nearly as?) likely (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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"Larry Pieniazek" <larry.(mylastname)@...areDOTcom> wrote in message news:I17q8K.EHH@lugnet.com... [ .... snipped ... ] (...) early (...) just (...) [ ... snipped ... ] I am not sure I think the Chasm model applies to this market but I may be (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) I don't think it does either. At least not completely, because the market isn't a shifting one (at least not at the like LEGO/don't like LEGO level) I'm just drawing the analogy to the very first people in that model that take something up (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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(...) When the AFOL community asks for something and the response is that we represent only 5% of their market so don't expect anything, that does send the message that we are not important to them. (If they want to give me "only 5%" of the money (...) (20 years ago, 21-Jul-04, to lugnet.market.theory)
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