 | | Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism
|
|
(...) I wouldn't. Basically, what it boils down to is predictable fractal behavior. Although still random-looking, the system follows very consistant patterns. For example, imagine fractal-generated landscapes. Or basically just imagine 'possible' (...) (24 years ago, 24-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism
|
|
(...) I still think you are seeing patterns you find interesting. When I buy a lottery ticket I always get "1 2 3 4 5 6" The U.S. coast line appearing _exactly_ the same somewhere else is "as" unlikely as the 200 mile one you posit. (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Chaotic Systems... (was: Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism)
|
|
(...) And I'd argue that that's JUST as likely as any other combination of numbers, accepting that each lottery number is as equally likely to appear as the next. Hence, you're fine. (...) The difference is in the inherent behavior of the system. (...) (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Chaotic Systems... (was: Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism)
|
|
(...) If the UK lottery usage is anything to go by, I would avoid those numbers. I am sure I am right in saying it is the most common combination selected. If/when you win, you will have to share it with a lot of other players! That said, the (...) (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Chaotic Systems... (was: Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism)
|
|
(...) Actually, I honestly wonder whether they'd 'let' such a combination pass... I'm willing to bet that if they got the combination 1,2,3,4,5,6, that lots of people would insist that it was rigged, even if it didn't happen.... I dunno what they'd (...) (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Chaotic Systems... (was: Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism)
|
|
(...) Almost all the draws in the UK are live. There are “independent adjudicators” present to confirm that there is no shenanigans underway – what these people’s skills are I do not know. I doubt that you could discount a draw due to the selection (...) (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Chaotic Systems... (was: Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism)
|
|
For “sequential” read “consecutive” (...) (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Probability: (Was: Re: Chaotic Systems...)
|
|
(...) Most definitely, but that's only because there are more non-sequential combinations. But any PARTICULAR non-sequential combination is just as likely, obviously... (...) And again, the same applies... given that it'll be sequential, the (...) (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Chaotic Systems... (was: Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism)
|
|
(...) Well, definitely such a sequence is much less likely than a more "random looking" sequence. If you 6 numbers are the digits 1-9, there are only 4 such sequences compared to a total of 9!/3! sequences (if each digit can only occur once, 9^6 (...) (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Chaotic Systems... (was: Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism)
|
|
(...) I'm with Scott A. on this, while all patterns are equally likely (in a fair draw) to come up, if you want to maximize your expected result, choose patterns less likely to have been selected so you reduce the odds of splitting with someone (...) (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Probability: (Was: Re: Chaotic Systems...)
|
|
(...) I'd get rid of the 1/3 chance and take the 1/2. Regardless of the laws of probability, sods law still says I will not win! Scott A (24 years ago, 26-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Probability: (Was: Re: Chaotic Systems...)
|
|
(...) Actually, the odds that it's in the OTHER door (the one you didn't pick) are now up to 2/3, not just 1/2! I remember that this question actually generated a couple debates from a magazine and several colleges who were disputing the probability (...) (24 years ago, 26-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
| |
| | Re: Probability: (Was: Re: Chaotic Systems...)
|
|
(...) Yea, one place it was a big deal in was Ask Marylyn (sp?) in Parade. There's several ways to analyze it and get to the 2/3 chance. The one I realized yesterday is the simplest (but perhaps not most intuitive) is to realize that by switching, (...) (24 years ago, 26-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
|
