Subject:
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Re: Chaotic Systems... (was: Re: Problems with Christianity and Darwinism)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.debate
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Date:
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Thu, 25 Jan 2001 19:14:23 GMT
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Viewed:
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1367 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.debate, David Eaton writes:
> In lugnet.off-topic.debate, Guy Albertelli writes:
> > I still think you are seeing patterns you find interesting.
> >
> > When I buy a lottery ticket I always get "1 2 3 4 5 6"
>
> And I'd argue that that's JUST as likely as any other combination of
> numbers, accepting that each lottery number is as equally likely to appear
> as the next. Hence, you're fine.
I'm with Scott A. on this, while all patterns are equally likely (in a fair
draw) to come up, if you want to maximize your expected result, choose
patterns less likely to have been selected so you reduce the odds of
splitting with someone else...
Because while the pattern coming UP is random, the pattern being chosen to
be played is not always random, much of the time it is chosen by the human.
Studies have shown that 1-12 are more frequent choices than 13-31 which are
in turn more frequent than 32-<end of draw>... because people play numbers
like their birthday, anniversary, etc. Also, avoid 7 since everyone picks
it, and so forth. Also the numbers at the very end are slightly better
especially right after the lottery changes the number of numbers, since many
people don't change their numbers on an increase, leaving the newest
slightly less selected.
I'm also a believer in not playing at all unless the expected value is more
than the bet (which happens in US state games if they roll enough times for
the jackpot to get really huge...)
(my retirement plan is 2 lottery tickets, not just one. :-) Just kidding.
++Lar
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