Subject:
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Re: Probability: (Was: Re: Chaotic Systems...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.debate
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Date:
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Fri, 26 Jan 2001 13:19:22 GMT
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Viewed:
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1279 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.debate, Scott Arthur writes:
>
> > Here's an interesting one probability: (totally non sequeter):
> >
> > There used to be a game show on TV where they'd have 3 doors. Behind ONE of
> > the doors was a prize. Behind the OTHER two doors, there was either nothing
> > or just something stupid... I think when I heard it, it was a 'goat' as the
> > 'gag' prize.
> >
> > Anyway, the contestant would pick a door. And of course the host, trying to
> > build up suspense would open one of the remaining doors with a gag prize,
> > and give the contestant one last chance to change their mind.
> >
> > So the question: is it statistically to your advantage to switch your choice
> > to the remaining unopened door or to stick with your original choice?
>
>
> I'd get rid of the 1/3 chance and take the 1/2. Regardless of the laws of
> probability, sods law still says I will not win!
Actually, the odds that it's in the OTHER door (the one you didn't pick) are
now up to 2/3, not just 1/2!
I remember that this question actually generated a couple debates from a
magazine and several colleges who were disputing the probability on the
issue... But you really actually are twice as likely to get the prize by
switching doors! :)
DaveE
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Probability: (Was: Re: Chaotic Systems...)
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| (...) Yea, one place it was a big deal in was Ask Marylyn (sp?) in Parade. There's several ways to analyze it and get to the 2/3 chance. The one I realized yesterday is the simplest (but perhaps not most intuitive) is to realize that by switching, (...) (23 years ago, 26-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
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