Subject:
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Re: Probability: (Was: Re: Chaotic Systems...)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.debate
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Date:
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Fri, 26 Jan 2001 09:53:50 GMT
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Viewed:
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1448 times
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> Here's an interesting one probability: (totally non sequeter):
>
> There used to be a game show on TV where they'd have 3 doors. Behind ONE of
> the doors was a prize. Behind the OTHER two doors, there was either nothing
> or just something stupid... I think when I heard it, it was a 'goat' as the
> 'gag' prize.
>
> Anyway, the contestant would pick a door. And of course the host, trying to
> build up suspense would open one of the remaining doors with a gag prize,
> and give the contestant one last chance to change their mind.
>
> So the question: is it statistically to your advantage to switch your choice
> to the remaining unopened door or to stick with your original choice?
I'd get rid of the 1/3 chance and take the 1/2. Regardless of the laws of
probability, sods law still says I will not win!
Scott A
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Probability: (Was: Re: Chaotic Systems...)
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| (...) Actually, the odds that it's in the OTHER door (the one you didn't pick) are now up to 2/3, not just 1/2! I remember that this question actually generated a couple debates from a magazine and several colleges who were disputing the probability (...) (24 years ago, 26-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Probability: (Was: Re: Chaotic Systems...)
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| (...) Most definitely, but that's only because there are more non-sequential combinations. But any PARTICULAR non-sequential combination is just as likely, obviously... (...) And again, the same applies... given that it'll be sequential, the (...) (24 years ago, 25-Jan-01, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)
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