Subject:
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Re: Larry Tells All... (was Re: Lego To Close Molding, etc.)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.lego, lugnet.general
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Date:
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Wed, 29 Nov 2000 22:32:11 GMT
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Viewed:
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69 times
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In lugnet.lego, James Powell writes:
> I also don't know how often the molds are changed (a big issue in
> downtime/manning) or PM (or even shifting...if there is one shift, then more
> machines operated for less time...), and I would certanly consider Larry's
> statement (of 100-500 machines) to be in the relm of possible...5K, well, I
> doubt that...
Unlike people who take potshots at others for guessing, you and I are both
extrapolating from insufficient data, but nevertheless still providing
valuable insight because we're trying to be useful.
One area of the data that is particularly weak is the 100 number itself.
Often, when a part of a large facility is closed, not everyone that works
"in" that part is laid off. The remainder may be transferred elsewhere,
retained because the facility is being mothballed not scrapped, or any
number of things. Conversely, MORE than the number of people that worked
"in" that part may be laid off, because the maintenance department gets axed
too, or because all of a sudden you need way less hilo drivers, or whatever.
We have no idea in this case what the actual deal is. So we also have no way
of knowing if TLC is reabsorbing everyone except the direct line mold
operators into being packers or maintainers of bagging equipment or
inventory control clerks or whatever, meaning that all 100 people actually
tended machines, or if conversely, there were only 3 machine tenders and TLC
is swinging a huge axe elsewhere at the same time because it's politically
expedient... The S@H person I talked to today (I was ordering anyway) didn't
know the numbers, but we agreed it was a shame this happened just before the
holiday season.
Both those numbers are probably extreme but we don't know how much so. I
like 15 operators per shift but it's a SWAG, nothing more. I like 30
machines per operator because I believe that's about the middle of a
reasonable range. Just because my gut and experience in mfg tells me so.
That's 300-450 machines. But who knows?
I don't think 5000 machines is at all likely either, actually.
Someone put their finger on it, K8s are going to all of a sudden be a lot
harder for US clubs to cadge. Among other downsides to this, it's small
compared to the loss of jobs. But it may well hurt TLC in the long run as it
impacts club recruitment and club marketing efforts to the mundanes...
++Lar
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Message has 2 Replies:
Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: Larry Tells All... (was Re: Lego To Close Molding, etc.)
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| (...) I'll add in here, that I was guessing. I was figuring around 5 machines/operator, and a fair overhead/support. For example, if you don't have any production, you don't require _any_ QA. Also, if you figure 500 machines (a possible number, but (...) (24 years ago, 29-Nov-00, to lugnet.lego, lugnet.general)
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