Subject:
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What's Mindstorms Futures? or Re: How Many Mindstorms Have Been Sold?
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.robotics
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Date:
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Sat, 17 Jan 2004 09:54:31 GMT
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Viewed:
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1250 times
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This post is a follow up on earlier post wondering about the sales
success (i.e. highest serial number) of Mindstorms. Looking at the
various replies, I've derived some data on Mindstorm's limited sales
success. The post also contains some speculation of what future
Mindstorm product (if any) might be; I have quite a different view vs
some of the historical posts on this topic.
How Many Mindstorms Have Been Sold?
=============================
Serial numbers appear to be assigned sequentially without any major
gaps. Several reports of serial numbers with leading digits of 0, 1, 3,
4, 5, 6, 7. RCX 2.0 seems to have started with S/N in 5XXXXX area. {No
reports for S/N in 2XXXXX range). Highest reported S/N is 72XXXX.
Far more RCXs sold in the first two years 1998-1999 (S/N under 500000)
than subsequently. Of course that's when Lego was actively marketing
Mindstorms (remember the TV commercials) and actually stocking them in
many stores. 2/3 of sales in first two years; 1/3 in the last 3-4 years.
Being optimistic, assume 750K RCX sold by Lego at a $120 price to
retailers leads to $90M in revenue to Lego over six years. Their recent
annual report indicated $1.4B in annual sales so basic RCX represents
barely 1% of their revenue.
You may think about all the "pull through" sales generated from the
initial Mindstorms purchase. Personally, I doubt if this is significant!
My guess is the typical purchaser plays with the Mindstorms for a few
months, runs through the samples and then looses interest with no
incremental sales. If you're reading this message then you're atypical
and part of the small avid group that makes large pull through sales.
This analysis certainly makes me wonder about Mindstorms future despite
the recent assurances reported on this list from their PR department.
Mindstorms is not a large and healthly product line! It has declining
sales! There is a very weak channel to market! Healthy would mean year
over year incremental revenue growth and the growth potential to be
5-10% of Lego's total business.
A Vision for "RCX 3.0"
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If there ever is a RCX 3.0, I think it'll have to be a less expensive,
but still powerful entry level product with a compelling set of
expansion sets that enable new functionality. I think it should be
priced under $100 price so that can be carried in the mass market retail
stores.
I've seen previous posts with large wish lists of additional
functionality. I can't see a market that justifies this. I can't believe
the total addressable market for something like this is very big or else
the readership and participation in Lugnet.robotics would need to be
orders of magnitude larger than current.
I would hope the marketing strategy is to develop a new product that can
be successfully carried in the mass market retail stores and hence the
$100 end user price tag. And the target should be at least $50M to $100M
in annual revenue (base unit and other pull through Lego sales) so that
you have to sell two to five times the number of RCXs that were sold in
the "good" years -- say 500K units a year!
Lego has already made three unsuccessful attempts at new products with
Mindstorms derivatives (Droid kits, RDS and Spybotics). Droid set was
too brain dead and could barely be called a computer. RDS was too
limited in functionality and too complicated to program from the
on-board keys. I thought Spybotics was too complex and not well
explained; has anybody actually programmed a multi-Spybotic
game/application?
I do think Lego got it right with the programmability feature of the RCX
and the subsequent development of a range of development platforms that
exist based on end user skill. I would loose interest if this
functionality was lost and feel this is essential for a new product.
A $100 entry level product should be achievable.The original list price
for Spybotics was around $99. (Or was it $79?). Spybotics provides a
good starting functionality with only a few relatively low cost
enhancements. What I envision is a single unit containing processor and
two motors, several built-in light sensors, and an expansion port. Add
$0.50 to put 64K of RAM, add a aingle expansion port capability, make
the case a little different so you can actually build custom models.
Maybe some fiber optic cables that plug into the unit so that you can
position the built-in light sensors differently on your model. I'd be
content with something like this if it meant the product was successful.
There are several low cost alternatives for an expansion port. One is
simply re-use of the existing VLL serial link. It would use fiber optic
cable to connect to the expansion unit; I'd prefer something faster than
9600 baud but it would probably do the job. A second alternative is a
I2C interface. It only takes some software (already implemented in RCX
to drive the LCD display) and two I/O pins that are properly
electrically protected from damage.
I don't really use the RCX LCD display and think it could be eliminated
to save cost. I prefer a PC-based interface that interrogates RCX for
data rather than trying to display anything in five digits. A few LEDs,
as in Spybotics, would be acceptable.
Separate motors would not be in the base package. However, they should
be supported in an expansion accessory package. First expansion pack
maybe contains a separate unit hooked up to the single expansion port.
This unit contains lots of "standard" motor and sensor connects and
maybe also extra battery power.
Maybe the infrared tower is replaced with the serial cable used in
Spybotics assuming that this is a lower cost alternative.
Add-on sets for expansion. Some possible set types include: [1] ability
to interface lots of standard sensors and motors -- i.e. a separate unit
with all the connectors that leads back via single cable to base unit,
[2] more technic parts for building; [3] some really compelling
applications; [4] remote control and/or infrared tower (although
Spybotics included remote in base set) [5] some simple applications that
drive multi-unit participation -- e.g. a sumo-robot. The expansion packs
have to deliver more compelling value than the existing Mindstorms packs
to encourage their purchase.
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