Subject:
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Price guide - something new (was Re: Insane prices.... nothing new)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Tue, 11 Jan 2000 17:19:07 GMT
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Viewed:
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391 times
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Frank Filz wrote in message ...
>
> John DiRienzo wrote in message ...
> > > Also for an interesting fact, I bought an unopened red beard runner on • eBay
> > > for $81. In my large pirate auction, it was sold opened for $152.50 • which
> > was
> > > more than a near-mint black seas barracuda went for ($148.01).
> >
> > I think the more recently discontinued a set is, the more chance of
> > massive price variations and valuations by individuals. I have sold at
> > least a dozen RBRs, and the price differences are shocking. IMO, the • reason
> > is because there are a lot more of the recently discontinued sets still
> > around than sets that were discontinued 5 or 10 years ago. There are more
> > of the newer sets on the market, and so the amount of time one spends
> > pursuing the set has a great effect on the final price he pays. Some are
> > willing to spend a lot and do little work, while others are willing to put
> > in some effort to save a lot - it all depends on how much one values his • $.
>
> Part of the problem is uneducated buyers not realizing how many of these • are
> out there (and not knowing that people bought them for bargain prices - I'm
> a lot less willing to bid up something that I know was purchased from DYA • or
> some other bargain source). I bought a couple for a small premium, but now
> would look to pay less than MSRP (they RBR does have some nice bits to • start
> a custom ship from, and hull parts for it are starting to go for too much
> for my taste).
>
> > > The bearded runner had a box but still, it looks good displayed in a dark
> > > closet while the BSB would look great displayed anywhere and is a 10 • times
> > as
> > > good of a model as the 6289 is. I don't understand what people see in • the
> > RBR.
> >
> > I have a few assumptions about the recent slump on the BSB prices. I
> > think it is normally selling for half of what it sold for a year ago. We
> > can thank eBay for that, too. Before eBay got a Lego category, finding a
> > BSB was actually very difficult and expensive. With the category added to
> > eBay, people began to realize they could sell their old Lego for pretty • good
> > prices. I never really thought the BSB could be that rare (perhaps, • sealed,
> > but not used) - it was the original "flagship" set of the Pirates theme, • and
> > must have been sold in mass quantities during its first couple years. I
> > think the people who got those as a kid are now realizing they can sell • them
> > (primarily because of eBay), and at this point in their lives (Dark Ages)
> > consider cash more valuable than Lego. I think eventually the price will • go
> > back up, after the NLPs (aka mundanes :-) ) sell off the BSBs and they
> > become harder to find again. I think in five or ten years, the BSB will • be
> > the most desirable Pirates set, by far, especially compared to the RBR.
>
>
> I agree. The market is shaking out a lot of BSBs, though they have been on
> the market for a while. I bought one at a used toy store for $50 (it's • about
> 80% complete), but still an awsome deal). The owner mentioned that it was
> the 2nd time she sold the same set! She commented on how the original buyer
> was affraid to do anything with it (even wash it - she carefully dusted
> it...), and displayed it on her mantle. Soon it will be ravaging the seven
> seas...
>
> > I think a lot of people don't realize how much better the BSB is in
> > comparison to the RBR, and see the RBR as a better value than the BSB.
> > Plus, a few of the people buying the RBR already have the BSB, and are • just
> > completing their collection before the RBR price goes up any higher (which • I
> > doubt it will continue to do for long).
>
>
> Definitely, though I think I will end up with a real sweet ship when I take
> a RBR hull (plus extra center) and build my Red Seas Barracuda (hey - does
> anyone know if the 3x3 diagonal brick exists in dark grey?).
>
> > A similar situation exists with 6080 and 6085 - they can't truly be • rare
> > in used condition (tons were made and sold). Most of the 6080s are • probably
> > already in the hands of collectors (or Lego fans, at least) instead of the
> > original hands who let them go during their Dark Ages. The 6085 is • probably
> > in the same position as the 6285 right now, being bought up by Castle fans
> > from the NLPs who don't need them. Eventually there won't be many left
> > besides those owned by collectors, and they will be harder to buy (more
> > expensive, harder to find). The 6080 is already less common than the • 6085,
> > and I think the price on both of these will rise steadily. Both had • dropped
> > in price during the past year, too, but the 6080 is selling for about the
> > same amount it did a year ago, while the 6085 is still catching up.
>
> I feel fortuanate to have got 3 6080 from a kid entering his dark ages • (yes,
> THREE). Hmm, my database says I have a 6085 also, I think I got it from the
> same kid. He had an amazing collection for a kid (and I think I less than
> half of it, even when I bought out the last several boxes of stuff he • hadn't
> separated into sets yet, I have 3 copier paper boxes FULL of bricks from
> him, plus at least another 1 or 2 boxes worth of bricks sorted into sets).
>
> > For those complaining about insane eBay prices, I say love it while it
> > lasts, we are in a buyers market, for now, but probably not much longer. • If
> > a price is insane, don't bid - wait for another, if you think there is a
> > reasonable chance there will be another. I am talking about old sets,
> > primarily. Who knows how long insane prices for recently discontinued and
> > currently available sets will last, probably longer than with the older
> > sets, until a more efficient marketing device than eBay is initiated.
> > Although most of us have not liked the idea of a price guide all along, I
> > think we will be seeing one (in some form) soon, FBOW. That could • alleviate
> > some of the insanity regarding new sets, but at the same time, may hinder
> > the accessibility to old sets, if its not accurate (and how could it be • 100%
> > accurate?!) People tend to read price guides incorrectly, too. Anyway,
> > enough. Thanks for reading.
>
>
> I'm not sure a price guide will ever be that useful. One may exist which
> gets used by those who primarily collect sets as a collectors item (many of
> whom probably wouldn't build the sets). The value of a set varies somewhat
> based on the buyer's interest in the set as a whole, or the parts it
> contains.
>
> Frank
Have you read the Lugnet plan? It mentions a forthcoming price guide. I
am continually amazed how well Todd is implementing his plan, but this one
aspect of it has always worried me.
First I don't understand how monitoring Lugnet transactions will give an
accurate view of prices in general unless somehow eBay and Yahoo and other
places will be tracked, too. I don't think Lugnet is going to be a part of
every Lego transaction as the Plan seems to convey.
Second, while it may be very good for stabilizing recent and current set
prices, it may give very skewed numbers for very rare items.
Take the 8859 Harvester. I had three of it in sealed condition. I was
told by well informed people that it would probably fetch over $500, as none
had been sold in a couple years, and the previous known sales of it had gone
very, very high. Well, my 3, which I sold over the course of several months
all sold for around $300 each. Another sealed 8859 from another seller sold
for a little less. I have had a price guide of my own for a long time, but
the price on that set was quite inaccurate due to scarcity of the set and/or
outdated (unobtainable) info. Same happens with Guarded Inn, and many
others. I don't like the idea of a price guide for rare sets, because it
can't be nearly entirely accurate. For new sets, it seems like it would add
some stability and give novices a better idea of what they should pay,
though.
So, I have provided an alternative idea to a price guide... called a fair
price board. For newer, more abundant sets, which seem to be getting dumped
on eBay and realizing insane prices, it might be worthwhile to create a
board listing reasonable prices to pay, including advice on where to find
such sets at said prices.
In most areas of collecting, people who buy stuff at a store and
immediately sell it on eBay for a tremendous profit are called scalpers. I
don't want to use that label on anyone here, but I do see a lot of what I
think of as Lego scalping on eBay. I don't think this does the market much
good in any way. I'd rather see people who dig up truly hard to find sets
(like Mark Harrison, and others in Europe, etc) be rewarded for adding
something to the market rather than people who simply find a new (or recent)
set in a store at a good price.
I'd like to save those who aren't aware of the actual cost of newer sets
some of their money, so they may then perhaps look at spending it on
something closer to the actual value of the dollars they are spending. The
idea of the fair price board is to cut down on scalping, and to perpetuate
the clearing out of attics and closets and old warehouses. Simply put, if
there is more cash reward for a person to look for Lego at Target than in
their (or someone else's) attic, where are they going to look for it? I'd
rather see the prices on new stuff stay low, so that more old stuff will get
dug up for those of us who like it. And the people who like new stuff
should be happy with the prices being kept in reason.
Thats the whole idea behind the fair price board. If you think its a
good idea, and have any advice on how to implement it and how to attract
traffic to it, please let me know. Thanks for reading.
--
Have fun!
John
The Legos you've been dreaming of...
http://www114.pair.com/ig88/lego
my weird Lego site:
http://www114.pair.com/ig88/
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Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: Insane prices.... nothing new
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| John DiRienzo wrote in message ... (...) eBay (...) reason (...) Part of the problem is uneducated buyers not realizing how many of these are out there (and not knowing that people bought them for bargain prices - I'm a lot less willing to bid up (...) (25 years ago, 11-Jan-00, to lugnet.market.theory)
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