Subject:
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Re: Does auction length matter?
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Thu, 6 May 1999 06:37:53 GMT
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Viewed:
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680 times
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In lugnet.market.theory, lehman@javanet.com (Todd Lehman) writes:
> In my experience, Mondays and Tuesdays are always the biggest days for jumps
> in activity -- and actually, with Tuesday being a little bigger than Monday
> -- always -- every week -- no exceptions. It's *really* freaky. Every
> single week in every single auction I've held in the past 2 years looks
> exactly the same after curve normalization. There's a trough on Friday
> through Sunday and a peak on Monday through Wednesday.
Here's some more data. The stuff above was from analyzing monetary jumps
rather than activity jumps per se. That is, the data being looked at for
the above statement was the curve representing the total dollar amount tied
up in the auction.
Here is some data taken from 223617 bids placed by 891 different bidders
bidding in 7 different large parts auctions during the period July 1997 to
present:
Day Bids
=== =========================================================
Mon 39873 ----------------------------------------
Tue 34138 ----------------------------------
Wed 38158 --------------------------------------
Thu 34003 ----------------------------------
Fri 29402 -----------------------------
Sat 23844 ------------------------
Sun 24199 ------------------------
======
223617
It's interesting to speculate whether the higher overall monetary jumps on
Tuesdays (as compared to Mondays & Wednesdays) are the result of "gutsier"
actions for whatever reason, or of something else...?
Hmm...check this out:
Day Average dollar value per bid
=== =========================================================
Mon $2.90 -----------------------------
Tue $3.28 ---------------------------------
Wed $2.95 ------------------------------
Thu $3.13 -------------------------------
Fri $3.09 -------------------------------
Sat $2.96 ------------------------------
Sun $3.23 --------------------------------
So people are bidding more *per bid* on Tuesdays than any other day! Wow.
I guess that makes up for the lesser overall *quantity* of bids on Tuesdays
(as compared to Mondays & Wednesdays).
BTW, this whole Tuesday thing holds true for different temporal slices of
the data -- 1997 or 1998 or 1999 or Summer or Winter or Fall or Spring.
Let's see how much Tuesday is skewed from the averages: The average number
of bids per day is 31945. The average dollar value per bid overall is
$3.07. So Tuesday is 6.8% above the average in terms of price per bid, and
6.9% above the average in terms of the number of bids. Monday and
Wednesday, on the other hand, are 5.5% and 3.9% below the average price per
bid, yet 24.8% and 19.4% above the average number of bids. More people
submitting more bids on Mondays and Wednesdays, but for less money per
bid. That's freaky, eh?
To further draw out the skewedness, let's compute an "index of boldness" for
each day -- this relates the average dollar amount for a given day to the
average number of bids:
Day N B Ba = B/3.07 Na = N/31945 Ba/Na
=== ===== ==== =========== ============ =======
Mon 39873 2.90 0.9446 1.2482 0.7568
Tue 34138 3.28 1.0684 1.0686 0.9998
Wed 38158 2.95 0.9609 1.1945 0.8044
Thu 34003 3.13 1.0195 1.0644 0.9578
Fri 29402 3.09 1.0065 0.9204 1.0935
Sat 23844 2.96 0.9642 0.7464 1.2918
Sun 24199 3.23 1.0521 0.7575 1.3889
Look at that: the last column suggests that Mondays and Wednesdays are
particularly sloggish for bidding and that weekends are particularly bold.
Note: This discussion hasn't taken individual bidder habits into account;
for example, it could conceivably be the case that heavy-hitting bidders
participate most often on Tuesdays and weekends, with casual bidders making
the most appearances on other days. And indeed, looking closer at the data,
some people definitely prefer certain days to other days. Monday in fact
seems to be the most favored day -- the most bids placed per day per bidder.
Not the most bids placed per day overall (which it also happens to be), but
I mean Monday is, for most bidders, the most common day to submit bids on.
Day Average percentage of bids for bidders
=== ========================================================
Mon 21.7% ----------------------
Tue 18.1% ------------------
Wed 20.8% ---------------------
Thu 18.8% -------------------
Fri 17.9% ------------------
Sat 15.4% ---------------
Sun 15.4% ---------------
Note: These percentages add up to 128.1% because they're an average of
normalized averages rather than an plain average. This last table doesn't
really say much. It's interesting, however, that it's very similar to the
first table, which suggests that perhaps overall, the particular days that
particular bidders participate doesn't matter so much as simply the
particular days that any random bidder has participated. Still, it would be
interesting to plot the average bid per bidder per day as compared to the
total amount spent per bidder overall.
Oh well, enough data mining for one night.
--Todd
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Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: Does auction length matter?
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| (...) Not really an opinion, but some data: In my experience, Mondays and Tuesdays are always the biggest days for jumps in activity -- and actually, with Tuesday being a little bigger than Monday -- always -- every week -- no exceptions. It's (...) (26 years ago, 5-May-99, to lugnet.market.theory)
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