Subject:
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Re: Market Share (was train windows)
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.market.theory
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Date:
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Thu, 29 Jun 2000 20:33:46 GMT
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Viewed:
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623 times
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In lugnet.market.theory, Larry Pieniazek writes:
> Brian took a guess. I think he's off in one direction on one and the other on
> the other.. He guessed 1000 fans spending 3000 a year (in the US) for a total
> of 3 mil.
> I think his fan estimate is low. I've heard some numbers batted around which I
> have no backup for... but these numbers estimate that for every lugnet member
> there are 3 posters. For every poster there are 9 lurkers and for every lurker
> there are 9 people who either don't care to use the internet or don't even • know
> that there is a Lego community out here (this came up yesterday in our Italian
> bull session but it's a world wide phenomena, just the ratios differ)
I'm surprised by both 9s. I suppose it's possible. Maybe Todd could compare
page hits vs number of posts somehow. Maybe percentage of page hits from IP
addresses that did not (or never) post. It would be fuzzy, but maybe it would
be a useful number somehow.
> The number of US members is easy to look up but I'm too lazy. Let's say it's
> 200 out of the total (just crank in the right answer)... that gives 800 US
> posters, 8000 poster/readers and 80,000 US users. That number seems too high,
> but 1000 fans is only an average of 20 per state which seems too low. 10000
> seems more like it.
You probably have a better handle on it than I do. It sure doesn't seem like
there were that many on RTL before lugnet. RTL never felt like more than 200-
300 users to me. (now it feels dead) Maybe it's a bigger thing now. Or
maybe I'm out of my mind.
> Try playing with the ratios and see what numbers you come up with.
> On the other hand I think his purchase number for sets bought AT RETAIL is
> high. I doubt that we spend 3000/year on sets bought at retail on average. I
> skew it upwards, no doubt, but there are many fans who are on a total budget • of
> 50 a month (which is not their retail expenditure, they buy garage sale stuff
> and sell it at a profit, then use the money to buy other stuff they really
> want)
There is a lot of reselling to support the habit. I think there are a fair
number of larger buyers though. I can name half a dozen of us off the top of
my head. 250/month sounds high though. On the other hand, jeff bezos is
supposed to be a lego fan so there's no telling his affect on the numbers. :-)
> So I'd put the number at more like 1500/ year or so. Based on nothing at all.
sounds good
> Crank in 10K fans and 1500 a year and you now get 15 million. Still small
> potatoes for a multinational. But if you think our impact is only the
> purchasing power we have for retail sets you miss the point.
> I suspect many of us, were LD to fill all our parts needs, would care very
> little about what exactly was sold at retail, even were it crud, other than
> that it makes liars out of us when we say TLG is great.
> Our power comes in being an influence on what other people think of the brand.
> As I said, we are just getting rolling here, but we have the potential to be a
> HUGE positive, or slight negative (think about it, if we wow the mundanes we
> get coverage, if we whine about TLG, we get no coverage, whiners don't make • the
> news) influence.
TLG has held world-wide building contests before (I was in one) so maybe the
plan (one of many) is to hold another contest. Supply us with mountains of
bricks, then have a contest with different classes.
children/amature/professional, if there is such a thing as a professional
brick builder. Then turn the thing into a media event. Looks like a bright
future for the brick. It'll be interesting to see how they leverage us.
brian
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Market Share (was train windows)
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| (...) That reminds me of the St. Ives song. :) (...) Here's a bit of numbers: According to the www.lugnet.com HTTP logs, in the past 7 days (June 22-28 inclusive) there have been: * 17,737 different IP addresses making HTTP requests * 317,658 page (...) (24 years ago, 29-Jun-00, to lugnet.market.theory)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Market Share (was train windows)
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| (...) Brian took a guess. I think he's off in one direction on one and the other on the other.. He guessed 1000 fans spending 3000 a year (in the US) for a total of 3 mil. I think his fan estimate is low. I've heard some numbers batted around which (...) (24 years ago, 26-Jun-00, to lugnet.market.theory)
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