Subject:
|
Re: Market Share (was train windows)
|
Newsgroups:
|
lugnet.market.theory
|
Date:
|
Mon, 26 Jun 2000 15:59:13 GMT
|
Viewed:
|
546 times
|
| |
|
|
In lugnet.general, Andreas Stabno writes:
> In lugnet.lego.direct, Larry Pieniazek writes:
> Does anyone want to guess the total number of AFOLs and average number of sets
> purchased annually at retail?
Brian took a guess. I think he's off in one direction on one and the other on
the other.. He guessed 1000 fans spending 3000 a year (in the US) for a total
of 3 mil.
I think his fan estimate is low. I've heard some numbers batted around which I
have no backup for... but these numbers estimate that for every lugnet member
there are 3 posters. For every poster there are 9 lurkers and for every lurker
there are 9 people who either don't care to use the internet or don't even know
that there is a Lego community out here (this came up yesterday in our Italian
bull session but it's a world wide phenomena, just the ratios differ)
The number of US members is easy to look up but I'm too lazy. Let's say it's
200 out of the total (just crank in the right answer)... that gives 800 US
posters, 8000 poster/readers and 80,000 US users. That number seems too high,
but 1000 fans is only an average of 20 per state which seems too low. 10000
seems more like it.
Try playing with the ratios and see what numbers you come up with.
On the other hand I think his purchase number for sets bought AT RETAIL is
high. I doubt that we spend 3000/year on sets bought at retail on average. I
skew it upwards, no doubt, but there are many fans who are on a total budget of
50 a month (which is not their retail expenditure, they buy garage sale stuff
and sell it at a profit, then use the money to buy other stuff they really
want)
So I'd put the number at more like 1500/ year or so. Based on nothing at all.
Crank in 10K fans and 1500 a year and you now get 15 million. Still small
potatoes for a multinational. But if you think our impact is only the
purchasing power we have for retail sets you miss the point.
I suspect many of us, were LD to fill all our parts needs, would care very
little about what exactly was sold at retail, even were it crud, other than
that it makes liars out of us when we say TLG is great.
Our power comes in being an influence on what other people think of the brand.
As I said, we are just getting rolling here, but we have the potential to be a
HUGE positive, or slight negative (think about it, if we wow the mundanes we
get coverage, if we whine about TLG, we get no coverage, whiners don't make the
news) influence.
++Lar
|
|
Message has 2 Replies:
 | | Re: Market Share (was train windows)
|
| In lugnet.market.theory, Larry Pieniazek writes:>Our power comes in being an influence on what other people think of the brand. (...) I think you have hit the nail on the head here. All of our friend's kids love playing with me AND I am pretty sure (...) (24 years ago, 27-Jun-00, to lugnet.market.theory)
| | | Re: Market Share (was train windows)
|
| (...) know (...) I'm surprised by both 9s. I suppose it's possible. Maybe Todd could compare page hits vs number of posts somehow. Maybe percentage of page hits from IP addresses that did not (or never) post. It would be fuzzy, but maybe it would be (...) (24 years ago, 29-Jun-00, to lugnet.market.theory)
|
Message is in Reply To:
| | Market Share (was train windows)
|
| (...) I just got back from Carlsbad, and remember reading that TLC sells around 200 million sets a year. If we simplify the problem and assume that the average AFOL buys sets in the same proportion in terms of size and profitability as the average (...) (24 years ago, 26-Jun-00, to lugnet.general, lugnet.market.theory)
|
5 Messages in This Thread:
  
- Entire Thread on One Page:
- Nested:
All | Brief | Compact | Dots
Linear:
All | Brief | Compact
This Message and its Replies on One Page:
- Nested:
All | Brief | Compact | Dots
Linear:
All | Brief | Compact
|
|
|
|
