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 Marketplace / Theory / 1460
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Subject: 
Re: Market Share (was train windows)
Newsgroups: 
lugnet.market.theory
Date: 
Thu, 29 Jun 2000 21:39:21 GMT
Viewed: 
789 times
  
In lugnet.market.theory, Brian Lanning writes:
In lugnet.market.theory, Larry Pieniazek writes:
Brian took a guess. I think he's off in one direction on one and the other
on the other.. He guessed 1000 fans spending 3000 a year (in the US) for a
total of 3 mil.
I think his fan estimate is low. I've heard some numbers batted around
which I have no backup for... but these numbers estimate that for every
lugnet member there are 3 posters. For every poster there are 9 lurkers
and for every lurker there are 9 people who either don't care to use the
internet or don't even know that there is a Lego community out here (this
came up yesterday in our Italian bull session but it's a world wide
phenomena, just the ratios differ)

That reminds me of the St. Ives song.  :)


I'm surprised by both 9s.  I suppose it's possible.  Maybe Todd could
compare page hits vs number of posts somehow.  Maybe percentage of page
hits from IP addresses that did not (or never) post.  It would be fuzzy,
but maybe it would be a useful number somehow.

Here's a bit of numbers:  According to the www.lugnet.com HTTP logs, in the
past 7 days (June 22-28 inclusive) there have been:

* 17,737 different IP addresses making HTTP requests
* 317,658 page views (i.e., non-image hits with success response #200)
* 19,923 referrals to other sites via the jump.cgi link redirector

And in that same timeframe there have been 1,990 articles posted, with the
following breakdown:

     683 (34.3%) via NNTP (news)
   1,171 (58.8%) via HTTP (web interface)
     136  (6.8%) via SMTP (e-mail)
   -----
   1,990

There are currently 1,472 different e-mail addresses which have, at one time
or another, been signed up for e-mail delivery of messages.  Actively, there
are 976 addresses signed up for e-mail delivery.  I can't (easily) tell what
percentage of those are single people receiving e-mail at two or more
different addresses, but I'd guess the percentage is less than 10%.

The 'From:' line validator has records for 3,908 different 'From:' lines.
However, the percentage of duplication on this is approximately 25%.  Looking
at unique real-life names, there are 3,088 different people signed up to post
messages.  Occasionally people write their name differently (with or without
a middle initial, for example) so the actual number may be more like 2,800
different people.

--Todd



Message is in Reply To:
  Re: Market Share (was train windows)
 
(...) know (...) I'm surprised by both 9s. I suppose it's possible. Maybe Todd could compare page hits vs number of posts somehow. Maybe percentage of page hits from IP addresses that did not (or never) post. It would be fuzzy, but maybe it would be (...) (24 years ago, 29-Jun-00, to lugnet.market.theory)

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