Subject:
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Re: Sante Fe Wish List
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.trains
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Date:
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Wed, 27 Feb 2002 16:31:29 GMT
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Viewed:
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409 times
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In lugnet.trains, Alan Demlow writes:
> > Yes, I hope they don't go for a numbered Ltd Ed run of 10,000 again. The
> > chances of getting a match (if you buy one of each) would be ~1:10,000,000
> > or 1:9,900,025 if we allow for BJ taking 5 from each run! (if my Y2 stats
> > are correct... what are the chances of that?)
Zero.
> >
> > Scott A
>
>
> I can't resist this one...if you already have one Santa Fe loc and buy one
> expansion pack, the chances of getting a match are 1:10,000 (or, 1:9995 to
> account for the 5 taken out by BJ), not 1/100,000,000=(1/10,000)^2. The
> chances of getting any given number (say, # 5034) twice if you buy one each of
> the Sante Fe and expansion pack would be 1:100,000,000, but this is different
> than than the chances of getting some number t2ice, which is 1/10000 as stated.
I deserved that - Thanks Allan. I was working on the latter case, but missed
a zero in my metal calc, and then, for some reason, missed the nine at the
start of 99900025 ((10k-5)^2).
Basically, if I wanted to get two the same I'm better to put the money on
the lottery (UK odds ~1:13,000,000) and hope to win (~£4M?) and use the
proceeds to buy large amounts of 10020s (A's & B's). The chances of all that
are slim... but not zero. ;)
Scott A
=+=
Have you inspected Arthur’s Seat yet?
http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?p=scotta
"A reasonable man adapts himself to suit his environment. An unreasonable
man persists in attempting to adapt his environment to suit himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man." (GBS)
=+=
>
> Alan
>
> (not a probabilist, but I am a mathematician!)
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Sante Fe Wish List
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| (...) You're still not understanding the math. Put it this way, lets say I have A8888, what is the chance that when I buy a B unit I get B8888? One in 9995. The one in 99900025 chance is the chance you would have to get both A0006 and B0006 (or (...) (22 years ago, 28-Feb-02, to lugnet.trains)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Sante Fe Wish List
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| (...) I can't resist this one...if you already have one Santa Fe loc and buy one expansion pack, the chances of getting a match are 1:10,000 (or, 1:9995 to account for the 5 taken out by BJ), not 1/100,000,000=(1/10,000)^2. The chances of getting (...) (22 years ago, 27-Feb-02, to lugnet.trains)
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