Subject:
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Re: Sante Fe Wish List
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.trains
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Date:
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Wed, 27 Feb 2002 15:51:41 GMT
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Viewed:
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358 times
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> Yes, I hope they don't go for a numbered Ltd Ed run of 10,000 again. The
> chances of getting a match (if you buy one of each) would be ~1:10,000,000
> or 1:9,900,025 if we allow for BJ taking 5 from each run! (if my Y2 stats
> are correct... what are the chances of that?)
>
> Scott A
I can't resist this one...if you already have one Santa Fe loc and buy one
expansion pack, the chances of getting a match are 1:10,000 (or, 1:9995 to
account for the 5 taken out by BJ), not 1/100,000,000=(1/10,000)^2. The
chances of getting any given number (say, # 5034) twice if you buy one each of
the Sante Fe and expansion pack would be 1:100,000,000, but this is different
than than the chances of getting some number t2ice, which is 1/10000 as stated.
Alan
(not a probabilist, but I am a mathematician!)
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Sante Fe Wish List
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| (...) Zero. (...) I deserved that - Thanks Allan. I was working on the latter case, but missed a zero in my metal calc, and then, for some reason, missed the nine at the start of 99900025 ((10k-5)^2). Basically, if I wanted to get two the same I'm (...) (22 years ago, 27-Feb-02, to lugnet.trains)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Sante Fe Wish List
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| (...) Yes, I hope they don’t go for a numbered Ltd Ed run of 10,000 again. The chances of getting a match (if you buy one of each) would be ~1:10,000,000 or 1:9,900,025 if we allow for BJ taking 5 from each run! (if my Y2 stats are correct... what (...) (22 years ago, 27-Feb-02, to lugnet.trains)
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