Subject:
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Re: 10183 Hobby Train Review
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.trains
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Date:
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Mon, 12 Mar 2007 18:10:26 GMT
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In lugnet.trains, John Neal wrote:
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Yes, but I’d argue that the current 9 volt system is a toy train sytem.
Hobbyists are after something more complex, like DCC, motorized switches,
alternative geometries on curves, DRIVERS FOR STEAM ENGINES, etc. It is
remarkable to me that TLG was able to conceive of a system that is even
less complex than the 9 volt system, AKA the RC system!
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I’m not sure what you’re saying. That because Lego doesn’t have a DCC system,
arbitrary curve geometry, etc, that Lego doesn’t *have* a hobbyist market?
Here’s the skinny: You’ve got people who don’t care if we switch to a battery
system, and people who absolutely want to stay on an electrical system. The
people who don’t care are primarily kids, newcomers to the hobby, etc. The
people who DO care are what? Who are they? Hobbyists? AFOLs? What would you call
them? Whoever they are, this set is targeted at them.
Sure, there’s some crossover, because yes, Lego 9v is a toy train system, and
kids DO want it. And some people who couldn’t care less will probably wind up
buying this new set. But by and large, the people that will buy this set are the
whoever-they-ares that you don’t seem to want to call hobbyists.
I’m calling them hobbyists because Lego called them hobbyists at BrickFest ‘06.
Lego explicitly drew two distinct target markets, and called one of them the
hobby train market. They explicitly stated that they were trying this set in
particular in order to try and help satisfy the hobby market. If you’d like to
call it something else, that’s fine. But that’s semantics.
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HERE is the best indicator I’m aware for TLG to gauge the
healthiness of the LEGO hobby train market.
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How does ILTCO help them? I mean, it’s great and all, and it gives Lego some
valuable information, but how does TLG tell anything concrete based on ILTCO?
Lemme draw an analogy:
When the color change happened, we all remember the phenomenal outcry from
AFOL’s. The world was going to end. People were abandoning the hobby. People
swore off anything new. Blah, blah. If you were the Lego company, and you saw
that, spread across dozens of Lego-related sites, what would you think? That
there was a pretty huge demand for the old colors, no?
So Lego released a few sets EXPLICITLY to satisfy the demand for old colors.
They gave us a few bulk packs of grey, dark grey, and brown bricks. I bought up
something like 20 of each. Actually, more. Probably lots of other AFOLs did too.
AFOLs encouraged each other to show their devotion to the old colors by buying
up these bulk packs. And some of us did!
But what happened from Lego’s perspective? The sets just sat there. Jake had to
post some month or more later saying “Uh, guys? There’s still tons of these
things available.” And sure, you can claim that “oh, they weren’t quite what
people wanted” or something, but really, what it meant to Lego is that all the
online hype meant diddly squat when it came to actual sales. From Lego’s
perspective, they saw all this hubbub online and a VERY strong reaction, but
then got virtually nil for a monetary reaction.
So, I see ILTCO in the same light. It’s great for ideas, and it helps promote
Lego trains and the Lego brand. It helps bring kids into a hobby of model
railroading, and helps keep the adult Lego enthusiasts active. But does it
actually say anything about sales figures? Does it give Lego an idea of the
relative size of the “hobbyist” market compared to the “kid” market? I don’t
think it does. It serves some great purposes, but it’s nowhere close to a
substitute for an actual market test.
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But if we are going to lobby for a LEGO hobby train system, I don’t think the
current 9 volt system is it. It could (should) be MUCH better!
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Well... yeah. But so what?
Let’s pretend that this set sells through the roof. Let’s say “hobbyists” come
out of the woodwork and buy this set along with tons of 9v track and the new
Cafe Corner. Let’s say that this bursts open the doors for genuine “hobbyists”.
Lego’s going to take a serious look at what they want, and probably start
working towards a new system. Maybe still 9v, maybe not. Maybe DCC, maybe
motorized switches, advanced sensors for crossing gates, arbitrary track
geometry, a less exposed wire system, cores for landscaping, etc, etc, etc. Who
knows?
Bottom line is that this set is a guage for the whatever-they-are market. The
“not kids” market. If it meets with mild-to-no success, it probably means that
9v will disappear. If it meets with moderate-to-good success, it probably means
that 9v will stick around for a long time. And if it happens to sell beyond
anyone’s most amazing fantasies, it might mean we get something genuinely
“hobbyist” in nature.
Me, I’m hoping for that moderate-to-good success level in there. Cuz, I’m not
really a train hobbyist. I’m a Lego hobbyist. And I want the system to expand
and enhance, not change.
DaveE
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Message is in Reply To:
 | | Re: 10183 Hobby Train Review
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| (...) Yes, but I'd argue that the current 9 volt system is a toy train sytem. Hobbyists are after something more complex, like DCC, motorized switches, alternative geometries on curves, DRIVERS FOR STEAM ENGINES, etc. It is remarkable to me that TLG (...) (18 years ago, 12-Mar-07, to lugnet.trains, FTX)
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