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(...) I don't quite get why this works-- if you're doing rand($#bag), won't that always pick r, r, or w for the 1st value? Hence, theoretically, you could pick "wb", which isn't in your sample set... on the other hand, you're increasing the chance (...) (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, David Eaton writes: <snip> (...) I'd say 1 in 2, or 50 percent, but maybe I'm missing something. Good question though. Dave K (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Ross Crawford writes: <snip> (...) I like driving home from work--gives me time to think about stuff... And after reading all the great replies, I'm going to propose the following solution: If you have a bag with 4 marbles, (...) (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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(...) Your friend has assumed that there is a difference between the reds, and you know which one you have seen in your hand. As there is no information in the original problem to substantiate this assumption, you have to assume it's not the case, (...) (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Larry Pieniazek writes: <snip> (...) Thanks Larry, I'll add it to the rationale. I failed gr. 12 advanced math once--was too busy being the editor of the yearbook that particular year (and playing cards in the cafeteria) It (...) (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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(...) Wow! You wrote a program! Thanks Dan! Again I'm impressed with the knowledge and skills of those that partake in LUGNET! Adding to my case, Dave K (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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(...) The original question: 4 marbles in a bag, 2 are red, one is white, one is blue You reach into the bag and grab 2 of them. You see that one of the marbles in your hand is red. What is the chance (either fraction or percent) that the other (...) (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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(...) Yep, you're right, your friend is wrong. The problem is that you *wouldn't* count "r(2) r(1)" if order didn't matter. But then again, the thing he's forgetting is that if you don't count "r(2) r(1)", then you also CAN'T count *both* "r(1) b" (...) (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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(...) Hmm... I just thought of something. Are there two separate questions at work here? Question 1: Having drawn two marbles from a bag of two red, one white, and one blue marbles, what are the odds that the two you have drawn are both red? (...) (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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(...) I think he's wrong because he's trying to reason about partial knowledge, and that always causes problems. Look at it as a draw without replacement instead. The order you reveal things doesn't influence outcomes, they were what they were. you (...) (22 years ago, 3-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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