Subject:
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Re: Those stupid liberal judges are at it again!
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.debate
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Date:
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Fri, 20 Sep 2002 04:22:49 GMT
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Viewed:
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1158 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.debate, Mike Petrucelli writes:
> In areas with comparable crime rates and gun control laws;
> those that have tightened gun owenership restrictions have increased their
> crime rates, those that have loosened gun owenership restrictions have
> decreased their crime rates.
I don't have a lot to contribute to this debate, but this idea is invariably
introduced at some point, and it needs careful examination.
The problem with the statistic you've cited is that it is *very* difficult to
establish a causative relationship between crime rates and the relative
restrictions on gun control. The problem is primarily methodological; there
are a bazillion factors affecting the rate of crime, any of which might
function in conjuction with or independently of gun control. A few examples:
1. General economic status of the region under study
2. General financial status of the individuals living in that region
3. Change in population size/density in the relevant area
4. Change in the average age of the population
5. Change in employment conditions in the area
6. Change in the incidence of illegal drug use[1] in the area
7. Change in the non-gun-control-related policies of local law enforcement
8. Change in the prosecution strategies for gun-related crimes
9. Change in the incidence of reported vs. unreported crimes
10. Change in the nature of the crimes committed
11. Change in the incidence of recidivism vs. first-time offenders
12. Change in the location or demographics of high-risk areas, such as slums
or government projects
13. Change in the relative education level in the region
14. Change in the relative number of illegal firearms in the area
15. Change in the levels of home security or personal safety awareness
16. The number of "crimes" that were simply "illegal gun possession," and
how many of these were no longer considered crimes under the policy
of relaxed gun control laws
And that's just a few off the top of my head. A serious methodological
approach to the study you cite would require a careful addressing of each of
these factors as well as many others, and each would have to be accounted for
and eliminated as the cause of reduced crime. In addition, it must be
established that, absent any of these presumed causes, the incidence of crime
would have remained comparatively the same or would have risen; otherwise it
can be argued that the level of crime would have decreased anyway, regardless
of slackened gun control, or at the very least one must admit that one doesn't
know what the crime level would otherwise have been. You could simply assert
the causative link (ie, "gun control was softened AND crime went down, THEREFORE
crime went down because gun control was softened"), but that's circular, since
it's the precise point that you're trying to demonstrate!
My intent here is not to demand strict gun control but rather to caution
against flawed rhetorical processes in making one's case. Given the broad range
of potential caustive factors, many of which cannot be assessed with any real
precision, it is difficult to reach your conclusion [that decreased gun control
results in a decreased crime rate] without assuming it outright. If a study
exists that truly addresses these other potential causative factors, then I
have never heard of it, and that's pretty strong argument from silence.
In brief; the right or wrong of gun control cannot simply be determined from
incomplete studies that use incomplete methodology. And anyway, that's not the
point. The 2nd Amendment guarantees the right, and that *should* be
sufficient[2].
Dave!
[1] and the nature and correctness of "illegal" drugs is a matter of some
dispute
[2] in practice, of course, it's generally not sufficient, but the argument
won't be helped by appeals to faulty statistics
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