 | | Dumb question, in all probability
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Assuming that a pack of the new Black&White M&M's has exactly 50 of each color, what are the odds that the first five candies drawn from the package will be of the same color? (21 years ago, 24-Mar-04, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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| | Re: Dumb question, in all probability
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(...) Assuming a perfect draw (50% chance of either color if there are 100 candies present with 50 each) and that the draw is without replacement.. let's work the white case first, that is, what is the probability of WWWWW ? (...) (21 years ago, 24-Mar-04, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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| | Re: Dumb question, in all probability
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(...) I was on the right track until this step. Why are the BBBBB and WWWWW results added together? (...) Thanks for playing, in any case. Dave! (21 years ago, 24-Mar-04, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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| | Re: Dumb question, in all probability
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(...) Because out of all the possible outcomes (which together must sum to 1.0000, by definition) those are the two outcomes that match your description (all one color)... none of the other outcomes (BBBBW, BBBWB, BBBWW, etc etc etc ... keep (...) (21 years ago, 24-Mar-04, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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| | Re: Dumb question, in all probability
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(...) Ah! Now I get it, I think. So if the question is "What are the chances of drawing all white?" then the answer is 0.028142247%, but if the question is (as I stated it) "What are the chances of drawing all one color?" then the all-white chance (...) (21 years ago, 24-Mar-04, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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| | Re: Dumb question, in all probability
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(...) Oops--I meant 2.81% Dave! (21 years ago, 24-Mar-04, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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