Subject:
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Re: Dumb question, in all probability
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Wed, 24 Mar 2004 18:34:25 GMT
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Viewed:
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564 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Larry Pieniazek wrote:
> In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Dave Schuler wrote:
> > Assuming that a pack of the new Black&White M&M's has exactly 50 of each color,
> > what are the odds that the first five candies drawn from the package will be of
> > the same color?
>
> Assuming a perfect draw (50% chance of either color if there are 100 candies
> present with 50 each) and that the draw is without replacement..
>
> let's work the white case first, that is, what is the probability of WWWWW ?
>
> 50/100*49/99*48/98*47/97*46/96 (draw is without replacement)
>
> or 254251200 / 9034502400
>
> or 0.028142247
>
> The probability of BBBBB is exactly the same, therefore you can add the two
> outcomes
>
> 0.028142247 + 0.028142247
>
> or 0.056284494
>
> or about 5.5%
I was on the right track until this step. Why are the BBBBB and WWWWW results
added together?
> That's my answer. Hope it's right!
Thanks for playing, in any case.
Dave!
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Message has 1 Reply:
 | | Re: Dumb question, in all probability
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| (...) Because out of all the possible outcomes (which together must sum to 1.0000, by definition) those are the two outcomes that match your description (all one color)... none of the other outcomes (BBBBW, BBBWB, BBBWW, etc etc etc ... keep (...) (21 years ago, 24-Mar-04, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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Message is in Reply To:
| | Re: Dumb question, in all probability
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| (...) Assuming a perfect draw (50% chance of either color if there are 100 candies present with 50 each) and that the draw is without replacement.. let's work the white case first, that is, what is the probability of WWWWW ? (...) (21 years ago, 24-Mar-04, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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