Subject:
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Re: Dumb question, in all probability
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.off-topic.geek
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Date:
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Wed, 24 Mar 2004 18:26:54 GMT
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Viewed:
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544 times
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In lugnet.off-topic.geek, Dave Schuler wrote:
> Assuming that a pack of the new Black&White M&M's has exactly 50 of each color,
> what are the odds that the first five candies drawn from the package will be of
> the same color?
Assuming a perfect draw (50% chance of either color if there are 100 candies
present with 50 each) and that the draw is without replacement..
let's work the white case first, that is, what is the probability of WWWWW ?
50/100*49/99*48/98*47/97*46/96 (draw is without replacement)
or 254251200 / 9034502400
or 0.028142247
The probability of BBBBB is exactly the same, therefore you can add the two
outcomes
0.028142247 + 0.028142247
or 0.056284494
or about 5.5%
That's my answer. Hope it's right!
Note that if the draw is WITH replacement the answer is different, it's 5*
(50/100) * 2 (to account for each possible outcome) or .0625
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