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Time to think like a businessperson. "Pick me! Me Me me!" is not an argument for
placing a store. Let's try to model the most important factors that determine a
Lego store's success.
Essentially, it must attract a lot of people that buy Lego. To approximate
this, a first factor is: how many people live in the area? This would then be
modified by how affluent they are and other demographics like percentage of
families with children. And as you will see, tourism is a powerful factor that
overrides mere local population. Finally, there are bound to be logistical
considerations which I can't begin to account for: commercial real estate and
cost of labor for example. And beside that, only Lego knows where it sells the
most Lego already.
It is easy to get the first number, population. I used the MSA, or metropolitan
statistical area, which represents an area where people work and live. A single
MSA ties together cities and counties where people cross county lines to go to
work. It is a more useful measurement than county or city population.
Here is the list of where Lego has put its stores, with the MSA's overall
population rank in the left column. Further below you will find a table of the
10 largest MSAs by population, plus other ones used in the list.
Lego Stores
MSA
Rank City State
1 Bridgewater NJ
1 Rockaway NJ
1 Paramus NJ
1 Nyack NY
2 Glendale CA
2 Anaheim CA
3 Northbrook IL
3 Schaumburg IL
3 Chicago IL
7 McLean VA
7 Woodbridge VA
9 Dawsonville GA
9 Lawrenceville GA
11 Marlborough MA
11 Burlington MA
12 San Mateo CA
15 Bellevue WA
16 Minnesota MN
17 Carlsbad CA
22 Denver CO
29 Orlando FL
30 Santa Clara CA
As you can see, in the last year Lego focused intensely on the top 3 MSAs with
multiple store openings.
Previously, Lego had focused on outlet stores in lower-top-ten MSAs.
The bottom of the list contains the major tourist destinations with Lego stores.
At the very bottom, Santa Clara seems odd. Santa Clara is just beginning to turn
upward after a long decline in families with children. (In Cupertino the decline
is 50% over the last generation!) I think Lego counted all the engineers who buy
Lego. Well, whatever.
I suppose Denver and Santa Clara call in factors which I can imagine but can't
quantify. Let's move on.. here's the reference table I promised:
Selected MSAs by Rank and Population (2002 estimates)
1 18,603,110 New York-Newark-Edison, NY-NJ-PA MSA
2 12,745,084 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA MSA
3 9,286,207 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA
4 5,751,803 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA
5 5,484,061 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA
6 5,232,107 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL MSA
7 5,026,217 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
8 4,986,399 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX MSA
9 4,529,256 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA MSA
10 4,484,140 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI MSA
11 4,445,899 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA
12 4,179,500 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA MSA
15 3,125,833 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA
16 3,054,637 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA
17 2,906,660 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA
22 2,239,756 Denver-Aurora, CO MSA
29 1,752,192 Orlando, FL MSA
30 1,739,443 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA
The top 10 MSAs in the US cover 100 million people. That's one third of the US.
The MSAs with Lego stores cover 75 million people. Keep in mind that tourism is
a powerful factor that brings millions more people to those bottom MSAs.
Based on just population, the question is when--not if--Lego will open a store
in Dallas or Houston. Philadelphia too, though some of the NJ locations are
halfway there already. Probably Reading, PA would be a good choice for MSA#4.
Another store for LA would make sense as well. I wonder if Detroit should get
hopeful. (Detroit is actually shrinking.)
For the Ohio boosters, you have MSAs 23, 24, and 31, so the odds are with you.
If you want the data with a full MSA list, download my Excel worksheet.
And if I missed one Lego store or made any mistakes, I feel sure you are about
to tell me.
FWIW, my background is engineering and finance. But I was an engineer at MapInfo
so I have an appetite for geography.
-Erik
References
http://www.lego.com/legostores/
http://www.census.gov
http://www.destatis.de/themen/e/thm_population.htm
http://www.mapinfo.com
http://olson.pair.com/lego/xls/legostoremsa.xls
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