 | | Now the stakes are higher.... —David Koudys
| | | | So now he says he's willing to put 100 dollars on the 1 in 5... I'm swayed back to the 1 in 3... So here's the original question-- If you have 4 marbles in a bag, 2 are red, 1 is blue, 1 is white You grab 2 marbles from the bag at the same time One (...) (22 years ago, 6-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
| | | | | | | | | | Re: Now the stakes are higher.... —David Eaton
| | | | | (...) HA! Congrats on winning 100 bucks :) (...) Proof number one: (pure stats) #!/usr/bin/perl for(1..1000) { @marbles = ("r","r","b","w"); $pick = ''; for(1..2) { $n = int rand(@marbles); $pick .= $marbles[$n]; splice @marbles,$n,1; } $tot++; (...) (22 years ago, 6-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
| | | | | | | | | | | | Re: Now the stakes are higher.... —David Koudys
| | | | | In lugnet.off-topic.geek, David Eaton writes: <snip> (...) That's perfect! I owe you a lunch! Now whetehr or not my co-worker succumbs to 'outside sources' as valid enuf to change his position remains to be seen I'm trying to explain his fallacy and (...) (22 years ago, 6-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
| | | | | | | | | | | | Re: Now the stakes are higher.... —David Eaton
| | | | | (...) Effectively, he's right but he's not giving things the probability they're due. In his solution, the (r1 r2) choice is GUARANTEED that no matter which one you reveal (r1 or r2), the one revealed will be red. However, with, say, (r1 b), there's (...) (22 years ago, 6-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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