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Dave, you rock. I am finally convinced. :) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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(...) For any still not getting this one (it's tricky!) here's another way to analyze the problem. List all outcomes: Prize Choice Door Revealed Stay or Switch? 1 1 2 stay! 1 2 3 switch! 1 3 2 switch! 2 1 3 switch! 2 2 1 stay! 2 3 1 switch! 3 1 2 (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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(...) See the link I posted and follow some of the links it has. You are in good company, lots of mathemeticians came to the same conclusion. (and roasted Marilyn Vos Savant about it at the time it first got a lot of publicity) That was before they (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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(...) Inasmuch as you get to pick a second time, the odds are 50/50. If you did not get to pick a second time, the odds would be 1/3, not 1/2. Of course, this is leaving out the poker aspect: if your initial pick was incorrect, would they even offer (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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| | Re: math question (or pattern... whatever...)
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(...) Nope. The analysis that I have seen that argues for a different outcome than 1/2 has to do with the fact that you're being (or so it is argued) conveyed more information than it seems. That is, they KNOW which door is right, and by showing you (...) (22 years ago, 4-Mar-03, to lugnet.off-topic.geek)
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