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Subject: 
Re: One nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.
Newsgroups: 
lugnet.off-topic.debate
Date: 
Fri, 5 Jul 2002 19:06:22 GMT
Viewed: 
4301 times
  
In lugnet.off-topic.debate, John Neal writes:
In lugnet.off-topic.debate, Thomas Stangl writes:

Oh GIVE ME A BREAK.  Career politicians are from the left
AND right.  You make it sound like every career politician
is a liberal.  What a joke.

Without knowing, I'd be willing to bet that the number of 20+
year politicians are at least 5-1 Democratic.

This claim got me interested.  I decided that a thorough analysis of the past
fifty years of US politics was beyond my level of interest.  So I narrowed my
exploration to the current US Senate.  I sifted and sorted some stats and came
up with:

50 Democrats
49 Republicans

The average time served by the current Democrats is 12.34 years.
The average time served by the current Republicans is 12.33 years.

I call a Longtime_Senator one who has been in office more than 12 years.
I call an Extra_Longtime_Senator one who has been in office more than 24 years.

There are currently 21 Longtime_Democrats, 19 Longtime_Republicans, 7
Extra_Longtime_Democrats, and 6 Extra_Longtime_Republicans.

The single extra Democrat does not sufficiently account for the imbalance in
the distribution, but random chance does.  I didn't test John's hypothesis of
the politicians with more than 20 years in office, even within my limited
sample, but the 5:1 ratio is clearly unsupported with the Senate sample.

Of course, there are tremendous data lacking.  We don't know what these
Senators did before their election to the Senate.  But, I think it's generally
difficult to get into the Senate without prior political experience.  I'd guess
the numbers to stay fairly close.

Not a rigorous study, but some interesting data...

Chris



Message is in Reply To:
  Re: One nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.
 
(...) would (...) I didn't say more wouldn't run. It's just that they wouldn't *win*. (...) Displacing an incumbent is statistically difficult. They already have the advantage in a reelection attempt. Limiting $$$ hurts the challengers. And BTW, (...) (22 years ago, 5-Jul-02, to lugnet.off-topic.debate)

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