Subject:
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RE: Mindstorms in 1999
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Newsgroups:
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lugnet.robotics
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Date:
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Wed, 10 Feb 1999 19:00:47 GMT
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Original-From:
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Thomas, Jim <jim.thomas@trwNOSPAM.com>
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Viewed:
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1380 times
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OK, now I am starting to get worried...
On another related thread I was trying to calm fears that "updated
Mindstorms with enhanced processors" (reported in a ZD article, which I
believed, and apparently confirmed based on your report, is poorly written
and very misleading) would be incompatible with all of the 3rd party
software work done by members of this group. My point was that the (yellow)
RCX is more than adequate for Lego's purpose and I would be surprised if
they changed it in any significant way. Based on your report this seems
true -- no significant changes.
I remember late last year during the Christmas rush that Lego said they had
only expected to sell 12K units last year and that they had greatly under
estimated. Furthermore they have sold all 80K units from the initial build.
My guess is that their original plans were to only make 80K units total.
Ever. They probably thought they would last for between 2 and 3 years, the
approximate useful lifetime of a computer software product.
My fear is that Lego thinks they can make much more money on the new lower
priced (and likely higher margin) products, and may not do another run of
Mindstorms (support Dacta type product lines with Robolab only), or if they
do they might raise the price significantly. As long as the much more
capable Mindstorms is available for only $50 more, it will cut into the new
system's sales volume. If you think about it, the Mindstorms costs them
more to produce because of the serial transmitter, the PC hosted software
product support and development teams, and I bet more parts than the new
system. When you put the wholesale/retail prices into the equation, Lego
might only get $15-$30 more for Mindstorms (I don't know the standard
markup, but I have to imagine that wholesale is about 40-60% of retail).
Am I crazy. Do we really *know* that new runs of Mindstorms boxes (in
essentially the same configuration as we got them) will be manufactured?
The only thing I remember hearing was talking about making more *after*
March. Could Mindstorms go the way of the Supercar?
JT
BTW, the Robotics Exploration Kit sounds neat to me. Especially if there is
a way to break in and replace/modify the underlying software. On screen
programming could a boon if capable enough. You could write and test
software while riding a bus, etc. I see it as a different and useful
product -- especially if it could communicate with the RCX and the tower.
-----Original Message-----
From: Jonathan Knudsen [mailto:jonathan@oreilly.com]
Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 1999 2:07 PM
To: lego-robotics@crynwr.com
Subject: Mindstorms in 1999
Hi everybody,
I just got back from the Toy Fair in New
York. Here's a report of what's coming
in the Mindstorms product line this year.
This is all from memory, so don't expect
everything to be 100% correct. I can't
remember the official names of the new
kits--the names below are just ones that
I made up.
Robotics Exploration Kit
This is a smaller version of RIS. It features
a blue brick with two inputs and two outputs.
It also includes a built-in light sensor, which
I think may double as an IR port. You don't
program this brick from your PC, though--it's
got a larger screen on it and you do all the
programming from the front panel. This will
sell for $150.
Star Wars Robotics Kit
This is an even simpler kit which has some
sort of brain brick that's not even programmable.
It has a built-in motor and a built-in touch
sensor (I think), and seven preprogrammed
"behaviors." It comes with parts and instructions
for building R2D2 and one other robot.
Exploration Mars Expansion Set
We already knew this set was coming. Unfortunately,
I didn't find out what's in it.
Service Packs
Apparently some of those hard-to-find pieces like
temperature sensors will be available as
service packs in Lego's online store (which, unless
I'm very much mistaken, is not running yet). I didn't
get specifics of what would be available.
Updated PC Software
The RIS CD will be updated somewhat, but I
didn't get the idea that this involved significant
changes.
Accessories
As you heard, there will be both a remote control
and a video camera for RIS. The camera will
be tethered to your PC.
1998 Sales
I asked what the final sales figures were for 1998,
since they were projecting 80,000 units some
time in December. I didn't get a direct answer--what
I heard was that they sold every unit they made,
and that the RIS kit was the largest seller (in
dollars) in the US since Lego has been selling
sets, i.e. since 1961.
Analysis
Lego still thinks they're making this for kids. The
Robotics Exploration Kit was designed to be
simpler than RIS to make it more accessible to
10-12 year olds. I heard that you could put the
RCX together with the "brain bricks" from the
new sets, but I didn't get any details on this.
I assume this means they can all communicate
via IR, but I can't say for sure.
Overall, Lego seems to feel that the RCX was
overkill and they are stepping back a little.
While I was expecting to hear about a new
RCX with four inputs and four outputs, I
instead saw smaller machines. While this is
good news for my book (the RCX platform
remains essentially unchanged), it is a little
disappointing vis-a-vis Mindstorms. Perhaps
someday they will recognize their adult
audience and make things more complicated
rather than simpler.
Regards,
Jonathan
--
Did you check the web site first?: http://www.crynwr.com/lego-robotics
--
Did you check the web site first?: http://www.crynwr.com/lego-robotics
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